non-sticky casino bonus question

[cassette]

No matter how likely you are to bust out, if you never do your profits will be the first figure. If you bust out half the time your profits will be the second.

This is starting to sound pretty convoluted. But I think that increasing bet size increases your likelyhood of busting out, which in turn increases EV when you do bust out. Increased bet size is the catalyst but not the independent variable responsible.

[jman220]

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which in turn increases EV when you do bust out

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You're right about everything except for that statement above. I really can't argue the same point anymore except to say, as I already have, that it is Expected Value. It refers to a value based on an uncertain outcome. Once you bust out, you already know the outcome, there no longer is any expected value, there is just value. Look at it this way, I assume that you are familiar with the gambler's fallacy that past results can determine future outcomes. That is essentially what you are trying to do here. Once you bust out, the event has already happenned, it doesn't increase your Expected Value for future casino whoring because past results do not affect future outcomes, and it can't change the expected value for what you have already done, because I can't stress this enough, results are irrelevant in EV calculations.
Your argument would be analagous to arguing that hitting your flush on the river increased the EV of the hand, on the flop and turn, because you don't look at the hand till it completes. This is simply not how expected value works. You are being results oriented.

Edit: I'm definitely not the best person to explain this, and this probably isn't the best forum where other people who might be able to explain it better than me frequent. I'll cross-post it to the probability forum when I get a chance, they can certainly explain it better.

[jman220]

Ok, I x-posted this to the probability forum HERE we'll let them sort it out.