Standard or ballsy?

[MrWookie47]

I estimated us winning 45-50% when called in this spot, which is not quite enough. SB paying off is a consideration. Any measure of his WtSD? Is he willing to show down A high? I could see that pushing us over the top. It's definitely close.

[jrbick]

I agree that we've probably got SB covered, it was UTGs presence in the hand at this juncture that made me think "hmmmmm." If they're both river/showdown junkies (50+%), then I won't argue against a bet on the river. I think for this to be a good bet though, we have to be pretty sure that SB calls w/ his big ace hands here (and I think the likelihood of that in this hand is slightly higher than usual... there's something about these guys and paired boards that makes them like Ace high).

EDIT to say that I forgot that these uber passive guys are also slowing down now w/ QQ+. So we have more in this guy's hand range to consider than just big aces or small pocket pairs.