Hypothetical Gambling Situation

I seem to recall that was in a Marilyn vos Savant column once. She was adamant about the answer despite many readers serious objections. I can't recall the dang details.

she said to switch. something to do with the bayes theorem.

[gharp]

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I seem to recall that was in a Marilyn vos Savant column once. She was adamant about the answer despite many readers serious objections. I can't recall the dang details.

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I think you're thinking of Cecil Adams. He got it wrong, but Marilyn was right (this time).

[Hashiell_Dammett]

Yes Marilyn vos Savant wrote about the Monte Hall Question and proved that switching doors will win you the prize twice as often as the goat. Apparantly, all sorts of academics and statisticians wrote to her to tell her she was wrong and that the odds were 50/50.

The Cecil Adams article is interesting because he asserts that Marilyn is wrong. Then he actually admits that Marilyn is right but manages to back pedal and say that she is not entirely right because you can not assume that Monte Hall will even open a door. I think he's reaching at straws there.

I first heard about it when my statistics professor used the Monte Hall Question to explain Bayes Theorum in his class (and since Bayes Theorum deals with givens), he proposed that it is a GIVEN that Monte Hall will ALWAYS show you an empty door.
It was pretty amazing how many people in that class still insisted that switching doors is a 50/50 proposition. I think Bayes Theorum is what confused them in the first place. Ultimately, it's a complicated way of explaining a pretty simple concept.

[Eeegah]

Monte Hall is confusing, because it's only after one switch.

A better way to visualize it is if there were a million doors. We stick with door #1 while Monty eventually opens up every door, save one. Now which is more likely to have the car, the door you picked at random out of a million, or the one Monty has been avoiding for 999,998 door openings?

[crovax4444]

why the hell not, lets answer this

First off, the door question, always switch. I vaguly remember the math, but I know it improves your odds.

As for the double/quadrouple, since mathmatically they are the same, I'd do what Eeegah did and save myself a button press.

Crovax

[DavidC]

Cheater! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[crovax4444]

cheating how? Remember, I have no friggen idea wtf your talking about mathmatically 1/2 the time. I simply picked the responce that I agreed with most :-p In essence, I plagerized Eeegah's responce.

Crovax

[AdamL]

What's the utility of 10k vs the utility of 5k here Dave? *cough*

(innocent, stupid look)

[DavidC]

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What's the utility of 10k vs the utility of 5k here Dave? *cough*

(innocent, stupid look)

[/ QUOTE ]

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You care just slightly about money between $10k and $30k, but you care about $30k A LOT.

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