Admitting defeat

[stoxtrader]

It's no doubt a very emotionally draining limit on most, a fast, furious and usually very tough game, and some rake to boot too.

1000 big bet swings are common in this game, I know of several persons who have endured them.

lars

endured means they are still playing. I call BS on 1000 BB swings being common at 300/600.

can you name a few players who "endured" this and are still around? the specific game BK is referring to, and i guess you must be too, i think i know close to every player who plays it with any regularity.

[DcifrThs]

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It's no doubt a very emotionally draining limit on most, a fast, furious and usually very tough game, and some rake to boot too.

1000 big bet swings are common in this game, I know of several persons who have endured them.

lars

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endured means they are still playing. I call BS on 1000 BB swings being common at 300/600.

can you name a few players who "endured" this and are still around? the specific game BK is referring to, and i guess you must be too, i think i know close to every player who plays it with any regularity.

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US$100k swing was the largest ive heard from any substantially winning player. im sure there are larger but 1000bbs? if you swung down 1kbbs you have a problem. not only is it not "common" id go so far as to say its "impossible" for a winning non tilting player with any remote sense of game selection.

Barron

[LarsVegas]

Several, if not all of the Cryptologic skins allow multiple accounts in the same persons name. I am not sure (but it's very possible) that specific accounts have experienced 1000 big bets swings (there are definitely accounts with MUCH more than 500 big bets swings), but definitely persons who have endured a $500,000 swing in that game yes. Several. And I'm not going to name names. Most of them might play more heads-up and might have played a lot more hands on this limit than you.

Think about the old Sklanskly adage of 300 big bets. That was:

1) For substantial winners in a $10/20, $15/30 or whatever game, something of 1,5 big bets/hr or something. Meaning that usually, it would take something of a 500 big bet devation from their expected value to lose that 300 big bet bankroll during at 125 hr streak (they would figure to make 200 big bets, and instead lose 300 then). So even back THEN, David Sklanskly might have adviced a 500 big bet roll for a completely break-even or VERY slight winner. I am talking referring to break-even players, or just about that. 95% of the £150/300 are losing, breakeven or extremely slight winners, in terms of BB/hr.

2) The games Sklansky made this assessment for played far differently than £150/300 today. 70% of the hands are three or four bets before the flop, the bluffing frequency, aggression level is so perfect that most pots are bet on every street and those bets are usually called. The fluctations in this game is at another level than a $20/40 ring-game eight years ago.

3) The 300 big bet rule would, according to Sklanskly, give you something like a 99% certainity of not going broke. This is fine for most in a live game, where you get dealt 200 hands in a marathon live session - even though you will eventually be running quite a real risk of catching that 1% if you always keep you bankroll at excactly 300 big bets. However, online with 200 hands an hr at two lightning £150/300 tables, you keep taking new risks of eventually running into that 0,1% freak-freak-freak run of either extremely good or bad luck.

I can't see how you can't believe this. I think both theory and an honest man's experiences (through others admittedly) are telling you it is possible.

I'll admit I have been amazed myself at this. Some of these guys will regularly endure daily 150-200 big bet swings.

lars

[bobbyi]

It's a big jump from "300 bets is not an adequate bankroll" to "1000 big bet swings are common".

[LarsVegas]

Okay, allow me to re-phrase or explain what I mean then. Of course, 1000 big bet swings or even 500+ big bet swings won't be "common" occurences in the purest sense of the word.

What I am saying is that if two or three-tabling £150/300 for several hours is your regular everyday game, the chance of enduring a 1000 big bet swing during a year is much more real than "microscopic" or "non-existent".

Meaning, we are not talking "likely" or "common" here, but we are talking of chances in percentages, not one-in-a-millions here.

The thing the online poker does is allowing your to life an entire poker life of the old live days in a year of online poker. That gives talented and eager 20-somethings the chance to go from nowhere to millionaires overnight (again, figuratively speaking). It also creates a much more real "risk" experiencing of the most unlikely runs of bad luck one can imagine.

lars

[bernie]

Interesting post.

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This is fine for most in a live game, where you get dealt 200 hands in a marathon live session -

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200 live hands = around 5-6 hours (shuffle machines @ approx 40 per hour)

5 hours is a marathon session?

b

[Peter_rus]

It's easy to have once in a while streak of 1000bb of you're play betweeen 0 and 0.5bb/100. You can be still winning player... GOOD winner in terms of money/hour at 100/200.

[Sully]

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It's easy to have once in a while streak of 1000bb of you're play betweeen 0 and 0.5bb/100. You can be still winning player... GOOD winner in terms of money/hour at 100/200.

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This is something I hadn't thought about. There has to exist a certain percentage of the poker population that has a very high bankroll, but limited skill. I'm not talking about your average rich fish...I'm talking about a thinking, smart player that just can't get over the hump, and lives in that .25 BB - .75BB land.

This type of person could realize that he is better off making .5BB at 100/200 than making 2BB at 15/30, so he grinds it out. After a while, the inevitable swing happens, tilt comes in, and he blows through 500BB before he even knows what happened.

I suspect that there are plenty of people out there who fit this bill, and the occasional high limit 1000BB loser may be easier to find than you think.

[LarsVegas]

Hallelujah. Now, how many players do think win more than 0.5bb/100 per hour at £150/300, provided they sit down at any full 6-handed game they stumble across?

Of course, using insane game selection, and only taking the big blind in a game about twice a month, you can probably quite easily be 1bb/100 even in this game.

lars

[James282]

Ballsy post. This, among other things(keeping a positive attitude during downswings) is really a testament to how far you've come over the last year or so. Compare this to some of your other "results" posts and be proud, bud.
-James