a question on Variance

[mister]

A question on a skid I just hit:

In 1600 hands I've lost 1100$, or 110 BB (playing 5/10 10 handed). Does everyone run into a run like this at some point ? Does it only seem like a lot because I'm used to winning ? I basically followed all the advice I had heard and made sure I was playing with a roll of 300BB (was up to about 400BB), and losing over a quarter of it so fast is just something I'm not used to. But if this is something all poker players run into at some point or another, then I have no issues taking a week breather and then coming back with a vengence. Just seems like for now the deck is doing evil things to me.

[brettbrettr]

I'm having a similar [censored] evening.

Yes, its normal. It hurts but its completely normal. If you're staring at your roll might considrr dropping down a level to regroup, regain confidence, etc. That's prolly what I'm about to do...

[ghostface]

Tonight I had a 51BB drop in 500 hands. It just happens. When you lose a few overpair hands, get your sets runner-runnered, and your straights flushed or boated, it happens in the blink of an eye.

(Sorry, it was just ugly for me tonight. Oh I forgot to mention, when KK hits its 2 outer over you TT in a 15BB pot.)

I don't play SH, so not sure, but I think 100BB isn't too bad of a downswing. Not saying it doesn't suck, just saying a lot of very good players with a decent sample size have had much much worse losing streaks.

[tytygoodnuts]

I would reccomend more than 300 big bets for a shorthanded game. I think 400 or 500 is a better number.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play SH, so not sure, but I think 100BB isn't too bad of a downswing. Not saying it doesn't suck, just saying a lot of very good players with a decent sample size have had much much worse losing streaks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dear fellas,

READ: [ QUOTE ]
(playing 5/10 10 handed).

[/ QUOTE ]

Best,

Brett

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't play SH, so not sure, but I think 100BB isn't too bad of a downswing. Not saying it doesn't suck, just saying a lot of very good players with a decent sample size have had much much worse losing streaks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dear fellas,

READ: [ QUOTE ]
(playing 5/10 10 handed).

[/ QUOTE ]

Best,

Brett

[/ QUOTE ]

You read g00t. I don't.

[weevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Tonight I had a 51BB drop in 500 hands. It just happens. When you lose a few overpair hands, get your sets runner-runnered, and your straights flushed or boated, it happens in the blink of an eye.

(Sorry, it was just ugly for me tonight. Oh I forgot to mention, when KK hits its 2 outer over you TT in a 15BB pot.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I just had a 50BB drop in 40 hands at 2/4. Bunch of huge hands getting drawn out on and missed draws in turn. At this point it barely fazes me, since it's awesome people are drawing near dead as often as they do against obvious made hands, even the supposed TAGish players. If you think you've been playing well, and had a big downswing and are really upset, you should probably move down a level or two until such things become second nature. Downswings can really put you on a bad subconcious tilt that only winning can bring you out of.

The only time I get pissed about variance is when I've been faced with an onslaught of really marginal situations, and lose big. I'm never too sure if swings like that are due to my poor play or are simply bad luck. I try and stay away from the more marginal situations when I'm losing, since I find myself less able to judge my player reads properly. A subtle form of tilt, but I think more costly than playing somewhat improperly. This is the big reason for why I've stopped playing six-max. Player reads are such a huge factor in that game, and you're almost always in a borderline situation.

As far as the OP taking a week off to cool down, I think he should keep playing. If not at the current level, then step down for a bit. You should be able to feel comfortable with a 100BB loss, again provided you felt you played well.

[ QUOTE ]
As far as the OP taking a week off to cool down, I think he should keep playing. If not at the current level, then step down for a bit. You should be able to feel comfortable with a 100BB loss, again provided you felt you played well.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think taking time off til he feels confident is prolly a good thing. He prolly won't be playing his best when his confidence is down. At least I don't. I don't know if you need to designate a week off though. You might feel good after a good night's rest.

[jstewsmole]

[ QUOTE ]

The only time I get pissed about variance is when I've been faced with an onslaught of really marginal situations, and lose big. I'm never too sure if swings like that are due to my poor play or are simply bad luck. I try and stay away from the more marginal situations when I'm losing, since I find myself less able to judge my player reads properly. A subtle form of tilt, but I think more costly than playing somewhat improperly.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what gets me to tilt big time. I dont tilt at all from bad players that suck out on me regardless of how many time s it happens.

I tilt for the opposite reason. I tilt when people are not paying me off with my legitimate hands and are correctly folding onthe flop. I tilt when im getting outplayed. Or losing many marginal situations in a row. Thers nothing worse IMO is when no one is paying u off and when someone finally is playing with u in a HU pot and they outdraw u. Its the worst of both worlds. Getting outdrawn HU when uve been winning shi tty pots all night sucks ass.

I have a problem with tilt when im playing higher limits and people play back at me probably because im used to the general passivity of lower stakes games. I guess ill definately need to work on that if i have any hope to be successful at higher limits.

Sorry if this came off as a bitchfest or badbeat post but what weevil wrote really struck a chord with me.