Tsunamis:What if an early warning had been given?

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Published on December 31, 2004

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Could hundreds if not thousands of lives have been saved if the Meteorology Department had made a more sound judgement?

Did they really not know that tsunamis could strike Phuket and nearby areas after the major underwater quake took place off Sumatra?

Was it really too late to warn? If not, why did they not try?

One of the four officials in charge of monitoring earthquakes confirmed to me on Monday, just 30 hours after the tsunamis wreaked havoc, that the department was aware of what had happened minutes after the quake struck at 7.58am Bangkok time. The official said that they were discussing the likelihood of a tsunami, but did not issue a warning out of concern for tourism and the department’s own interests.

“The important factor in making the decision was that it’s high [tourist] season and hotel rooms were nearly 100-per-cent full. If we had issued a warning, which would have led to an evacuation, [and if nothing happened], what would happen then? Business would be instantaneously affected.

“It would be beyond the Meteorological Department’s ability to handle. We could have gone under if [the tsunami] didn’t come. We hesitated for a while over whether we should issue a warning or not. It was discussed, but we didn’t have a chance to do it,” said the official, who has become the target of a disciplinary probe for having the honesty to describe what really took place to The Nation.

This was a candid interview and did not come from a formal press conference. The department is now in a damage-control mode. People can only hope that there are more decent people inside the department who will become whistle-blowers, even if it takes some time yet.

What is interesting is that the department had a one-page, 14-point list of preventive measures for tsunamis posted on a board at the Seismic Monitoring and Statistic Centre in Bangkok on Monday. The first three instructions are revealing:

1 If a tremor is felt while on the sea or beach, head directly away from the beach to higher ground without delay and without waiting for official warnings to be issued as tsunamis travel at high speeds.

2 In the event of an announcement of a water quake in the Andaman Sea area, be prepared for possible tsunamis.

3 If a sudden down-surge of water is observed, especially after a quake, evacuate to higher ground immediately.

Were any of the department’s staff, especially the four meteorological officers, aware of this information?

The problem appears not to be a lack of knowledge, but a failure on the part of the department to give the public and tourists some very basic information. No one was told that if they witnessed an unusual or rapid low tide or heard or experienced a tremor from an earthquake, then a tsunami is coming. This understanding saved the life of the Dutch couple Tom and Arlette Stuip, who were vacationing at Khao Lak, and it took only 30 seconds for them to run and save their lives while hundreds, if not thousands, rushed out to the beach to take photos of the phenomenon. This very rudimentary knowledge could have saved so many lives.

Another interesting piece in the puzzle appeared in Kom Chad Luek newspaper yesterday, in the issue dated December 30. Prayoon Darongsiri, a fisherman in Phang Nga, said he survived the tsunami because he received a warning phone call from his daughter, who works at the department, early that morning. His five fishermen friends did not survive, however.

“I don’t understand why the director-general of the Meteorological Department came out to deny his responsibility. I am very bitter that this organisation tried to deny any responsibility,” said 47-year-old Prayoon from Takua Pa district, where Khao Lak, the worst site of destruction, is located.

So the problem appears to be not just a lack of a clear-cut protocol or warning system, but also a bureaucratic culture that is only concerned with its immediate interests. When the official from the department was asked whether the people at the department thought they should warn India or Sri Lanka after they had heard about the tsunami hitting southern Thailand, he simply said: “We were busy.”

People will continue to wonder for years what might have happened if a warning had been given. Everyone deserves and definitely has the right to know the truth. The government must set up a fact-finding committee that will also include representatives of local and foreign families that lost relatives. The public deserves no less than the truth, and if negligence is found then the responsible people must be prosecuted.

Pravit Rojanaphruk

The Nation

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