My QQ runs into a scary flop, what is my turn line?

[tytygoodnuts]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($47.23)
UTG+1 ($70.30)
UTG+2 ($46.50)
MP1 ($70.60)
MP2 ($136.05)
MP3 ($53.20)
CO ($11.57)
Button ($79.60)
SB ($82.20)
Hero ($50)

I had about 10 hands on my opponent and he appeared to be loose.

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
[color=#666666]3 folds</font>, MP1 calls $0.50, [color=#666666]3 folds</font>, Button calls $0.50, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $2</font>, MP1 calls $2, Button calls $2.

Flop: ($7.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](3 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]Hero bets $7</font>, [color=#CC3333]MP1 raises to $15</font>, Button folds, Hero calls $8.

I'm getting 3.75 to 1 on this call, anyone do anything different here?

Turn: ($37.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
Hero...?

Possible hand range for a loose player here: AT, KT, QT, JT, AJ, QJ KJ, Mid PP.

A loose player is going to bet a paired jack pretty aggressively here. I think he'd smooth call if he had a Ten.

I think you may want to lead the turn, re-evaluate the river.

[4_2_it]

Push the turn, you have less than the pot left and if you think he has a T you should have folded to the flop raise. If your opponent is 'loose' then this is a clasic raise the draw situation.

A 3-bet push on the flop might have been a more optimal line.

[tytygoodnuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Push the turn, you have less than the pot left and if you think he has a T you should have folded to the flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely think T is a possible holding in his range of hands, but with my good pot odds and the other hands in his range I can beat I have to call.

[tytygoodnuts]

We only have ten hands on him so I don't really know what his tendencies are post flop with TP or trips. My stack is less than the pot, so if I lead the turn my only option is to go all-in. If I was to bet $15 or so and he raises me I don't see how I could fold or could I?

Just because your getting good odds on the flop doesnt mean he's giving you those same odds on the turn. You have to assume he's pushing the turn with a jack or a ten. By calling the flop raise you should be ready to commit the rest of your stack to this hand or you shouldn't have called it.

[tytygoodnuts]

How sure would you have to be that he has a third ten on the flop to lay the hand down?

[ QUOTE ]
How sure would you have to be that he has a third ten on the flop to lay the hand down?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I could do the math on it and tell you exactly what % of the time you need to be right to make this +EV....but no one is making those calculations in game.

What I'd think about in tempo is what hands are in his range and what would he play this way? I think most players would incorrectly smooth call a 10 with position here. That's just my instinct for these small stake games. If he's a good player, he wants to price you out of this draw heavy board. He didn't raise enough to price you out. I also think he'd make this raise with any Jack or semi-bluff with a flush draw. My gut instinct says he doesn't have the 10 here very often. So I'd push.