AK as an isolator, against an isolator

[Josh W]

20-40 on party.

There is a (no joke) a 93/6/0.5 player who limps UTG. The next player is a 17/8/1.9 player and raises.

HOwever, UTG+1 has been playing a lot of hands, always raising, trying to isolate UTG. I think his raise here means a little worse range of hands than would be indicated by his stats alone.

I threebet AKo, and just the three of us take the flop.

Flop is 962, rainbow. Checked to me, I bet, UTG calls, and UTG+1 checkraises. I threebet (hoping to get UTG out of there with his J7 or whatever that is drawing very live against me).

It works....UTG mucks, and UTG+1 calls.

Turn is a blank. Say, a 4. He checks, and I check.

River is a queen, he bets, and I call.

I'll post my turn and river thoughts later, but am curious as to how others would handle this situation.

Thanks,

Josh

[GoblinMason (Craig)]

I like the flop/turn, but I'm not sure about the river given the flop action. What's he trapping you and the megafish with on the flop...no draws.

I think I'd let this one go on the river unless you have some read that he'd play the flop like that w/AK or less.

-Craig

[Schneids]

If you're going to call the river bet I think you're better off betting the turn because of the slim, minute chance he might decide your 3-bet PF and 3bet on the flop means he's beat and he gets rid of 55. If he c/r you on the turn again, you can fold to it right there.

[Pog0]

looks good.
bet/folding the turn is bad because you're getting something like 9:1 with 6 outs vs TT - QQ which may play it like this. Since we really don't want to see a check/raise, we decide to induce a bluff / take a free card on the turn.

Q on the river is the worst card for you, but after your turn check, villian might be fairly confident to put you on AK and take a stab with AT, AJ, or KJ. But was he making a play on the flop then? C/Ring, hoping you fold UI on the turn with overcards? It's possible, but less likely than a pair, say 88, A9, TT-QQ.

We induced a bluff, we can't fold to it now, can we? It's the combination of a crappy river card + his flop c/r that makes me believe that we're usually beat here. He probably thinks we have AK, so how does he think we will act with it?

[Pog0]

Isn't it still very likely that we have 6 outs on the turn, making folding a mistake? I suppose it depends how likely that is. If we're treating the flop call, turn c/r as indicating more strength than a flop cap, lead would, then the increased chance of AA, KK, 99 makes us have to discount our outs. Otherwise, I think I'm seeing 11:1 on a turn c/r, we need about 4 effective outs to make that call.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
looks good.
bet/folding the turn is bad because you're getting something like 9:1 with 6 outs vs TT - QQ which may play it like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see TT-QQ playing their hand this way collectively PF thru the turn. Most 20/40 players will either cap the flop if they think they're ahead, or checkcall the rest of the way if they think they might not be. And I think most of the time QQ-TT are getting capped PF thanks to the UTG's dead money. All of this leads me to say if you get checkraised on the turn after three betting PF and 3 betting on the flop you are hoping to have 3 outs and most of the time are drawing dead.

[Pog0]

sounds about right. If TT-QQ thinks it's ahead, it doesn't want to risk giving a free card to what very likely could be and in fact is a 6 out draw. AA and 99 doesn't mind getting tricky because they are less likely to lose to a free card. That said, I hate getting c/r on this turn, but by that point 99, AA, and KK all seeming equally likely (then again, wouldn't he cap AA and KK pf as well?), we have 3 outs 1 in 3 times, or 1 out...

But AA or KK should be capping pf, especially with UTG in there.

Suddenly I'm simply inclined to think that we won't be getting check raised very often at all on the turn here, so I say bet for a free showdown if we plan on calling a bet on the worst river card anyway.

[Brom]

Bet the turn I think and check behind on the river UI. He may still be drawing so you should charge him on it. It also gives you the option of a free showdown or extra money if you hit. This option is far superior to checking behind the turn and trying to pick off a few bluffs on the river.

If he checkraises on the turn you can release fairly confidently knowing that you are drawing to three or less outs probably. I don't see a player of his stats putting in three bets preflop and flop, and then checkraising the turn on some sort of move. If he takes this line, he's playing you with some hand that has you smoked probably.

I like the flop and the turn, but on the river I can't see which hand of UTG+1 you can beat after he checkraised both of you on the flop.

But if you really thought you might still have him beat, then I would bet the turn and check the river, this gains an extra bet when he would be drawing and missed.

On the turn, after he checks, the first question you should be asking is WHY? Your answer should be simple: He has you on a big overpair AND he has either: a. A smaller pair (my best guess); b. Or overcards (less likely, maybe he has AQ). If he's playing a whole lot of hands, maybe he has 87, but you really can't put him on this hand the way it was played both pre-flop and on the flop. Is A9s out of the question. No.

Checking on the turn is a surefire sign of weakenss. You three bet, now you are checking. Sure, it may lead to suspicion, but now chance you had of having him fold his small pair or his QK / AQ overcards is over. Put in another way, on the turn you are investing a small percentage of the pot to win a big one if he folds. On the river, you are putting a small percentage of the flop on a wild guess that will be right a very small portion of the time. Which would you rather have?

Given your situation, you have to bet on the turn. It's really your only shot at a fold. There are too many cards on the river that can help your opponent, at least from your perspective