Riverbluff +EV?

[xenthebrain]

Villain is 84/0 and WSD 40

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button folds.

River: (7.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets...</font>

But after missing, do you think a riverbluff is +EV?

[benkath1]

When I play hands like this I start thinking, If they will call a bb on the turn, they'll proably call one on the river. With 9 high, I would check fold.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 84/0 and WSD 40

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button folds.

River: (7.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets...</font>

But after missing, do you think a riverbluff is +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on what hands you think villain has. Would he chase KTo after the ace falls? If so, then your bet probably has value. Would he chase a gutshot to the river in the face of all of the betting? Then your river bet has a little more value. If the only thing you're driving out are better missed flush draws, then your bet is bad.

[Mathieu]

If your opponnent likes to chase, he could have many hands that beat 9 high but that he will fold on the river.

The texture of the board changes things, here the A falling on 4th street makes it "technically" impossible for someone to keep chasing with just overcards.

[xenthebrain]

[ QUOTE ]
If your opponnent likes to chase, he could have many hands that beat 9 high but that he will fold on the river.

The texture of the board changes things, here the A falling on 4th street makes it "technically" impossible for someone to keep chasing with just overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it wasn't against a random person, but against an ultraloose 84%vpip person.... He really can have any two in his hands.

[GTSamIAm]

I would be less inclined to bet because you have two of the diamonds for the flush draw and two of the cards for the straight draw. Odds-wise, then it is less likely that he was on a draw. It becomes more likely he has a hand that he will call with that will beat you. Check.

[imported_bezdi]

Check fold. He will call you down. WSD at 40% is very high and maybe he only has a small pocket pair, but thats the winner.

[Bodhi]

That really depends on your opponent of course. Any reads? If you could put him on the flush draw, or another draw, then definitely bet. But in the fish pond, someone could call you down win an underpair.

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Ok, now that I read this:[ QUOTE ]
Well, it wasn't against a random person, but against an ultraloose 84%vpip person.... He really can have any two in his hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't bet. Although we like the fact that he may have really weak cards, he's going to call you with K-high or worse here.

[xenthebrain]

[ QUOTE ]
That really depends on your opponent of course. Any reads? If you could put him on the flush draw, or another draw, then definitely bet. But in the fish pond, someone could call you down win an underpair.

------------------

Ok, now that I read this:[ QUOTE ]
Well, it wasn't against a random person, but against an ultraloose 84%vpip person.... He really can have any two in his hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't bet. Although we like the fact that he may have really weak cards, he's going to call you with K-high or worse here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, but look at it from another point of view.
Would you risk it, that both check and he shows you Q high and takes the pot and you know there was a real good chance he would have folded that crap and you now lost that whole pot to save one bet.
I know everybody hates to lose pots this way and from a psychological point of view it's definately +EV [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Also, I think the 84%vpip don't always mean that they always see the showdown.
Some like to see every flop and then fold when they miss, some always want to see what the river brings and fold there UI or with bottom pair, and some play the sherriff.
Now the question is, with any two starting hands and chasing to the river, is there any value in betting the river here?

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]

Ok, now that I read this:[ QUOTE ]
Well, it wasn't against a random person, but against an ultraloose 84%vpip person.... He really can have any two in his hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't bet. Although we like the fact that he may have really weak cards, he's going to call you with K-high or worse here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't be absurd. King-high and worse are not calling down.