Do I suck? Legends hands

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Unfortunately, sometimes playing a hand correctly loses you more than if you make a mistake.


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Simple is beautiful!

What a seemingly simple, yet so very insightful comment!

[Seadood228]

Against an unknown I'd probably check the turn in hand 1. The T on the turn gives him a great opportunity to represent trips if he has a flush draw. If he's on a draw, he'll likely call a large turn bet so I really don't see a point in charging him to draw and playing a big pot in a speculative situation this early.

If you check the turn, it looks like you have AK and your opponent will probably lead big on the river with a busted FD, and lead small with trips (maybe even check).

As it played out I'd still bet the river and fold to a checkraise.

[CardSharpCook]

Illegit, 22-99, JJ-KK, second button, 3rd button are all possible. In fact, all are more likely considering that he did not raise the turn AND checked the river out of position AND two of the four tens are accounted for. Players often (and correctly) will call down here with 2nd or 3rd button. Why? because they put you un AK, KQ, etc. These are the value bets you should be making, and you shouldn't think twice about it.

CSC

[illegit]

Just because those hands are possible holdings doesn't make them equally likely with other holdings, and therefore a value bet is certainly not clear in this spot as all other holdings that beat you or will fold are all much more likely given how the hand was played. For example KK-JJ are much less likely than say 2 clubs given how passive the hand was played i.e. with an overpair he likely would have bet or raised at some point in the hand.

A TX hand is mathematically less likely than normal due to less combinations (keeping in mind pocket pairs have fewer combinations that make them up in the first place than unpaired ten-X hands, and pocket pairs are entirely what your range of calling-that-we-beat hands consist of) but more likely given how the hand was played. I'd say TX is, for example 4x more likely than KK easily in this spot, just to compare 2 possible holdings. I'd say clubs are about 5x more likely than KK, QQ or JJ for another example. If you completely ignore the betting on the hand then in general, yes you should often bet AA on a TTXXX board on the river for value. not here though, and you're losing money if you do. 100% -EV bet.

Conservative estimations. Busted club draw 40% of the time. Trip tens 35%. Set 10%. Some holding that we beat but will likely fold to a value bet 7.5%. Some other holding that we can beat AND will call 7.5%. The results of an EV calc should be obvious: a bet is unquestionably terrible.