Textbook Major Kong type loose-passive table hand

Solitare · #1 04-05-2004, 10:02 PM

Interesting since due to the increadibly passive post-flop play, we get to see almost every hand.

Pretty new to table, so no firm reads yet. One note on UTG +1 as loose/passive (>25% VP$IP, <3%PFR). As I played at the table more it turned out that they were very loose passive, playing any two-suited and not betting/raising flopped sets.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB raises, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero 3-bets, Button folds, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (30 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (18.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds.

River: (24.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 24.50 BB
Main Pot: 24.50 BB, between UTG, UTG+1, MP2, MP3, Hero and SB. > Pot won by MP3 (24.50 BB).

Results in white below: 
SB shows Jd Js (two pair, jacks and twos).
UTG shows 9d 7d (one pair, twos).
UTG+1 shows 9c Jc (one pair, twos).
MP2 shows Qc As (one pair, twos).
MP3 shows 9s Kd (two pair, kings and twos).
Hero shows 3c 3s (two pair, threes and twos).
Outcome: MP3 wins 24.50 BB. 

Based on Ed Miller's posts I reraised my pocket threes after limping due to 7 other players in the pot with 6 needing only to call one bet. Unfortunately, I didn't follow up on the later rounds.

After the hand I made a comment to the table that the SB had been way too passive and should have been betting/raising all the way. I realize now that I was just as wrong with my own passivity.

According to Poker Tracker, here are the % winning chances after the flop and turn based on the 6 out of 7 known hands (ALSO IN WHITE)

Flop Turn
SB: Jd Js 22.75% 45.71%
UTG: 9d 7d 23.21% 11.43%
UTG+1: 9c Jc 4.27% 0.00%
MP2: Qc As 17.40% 17.14%
MP3: 9s Kd 9.01% 8.57%
Hero: 3c 3s 23.36% 17.14%


Given that after the flop I was a 23.36% favorite vs expectations of 14.29% in a 7 hand pot I should have been betting/raising all the way. Even after the turn I was still ahead 17.14% vs. the same 14.29%.

I see now that me and the SB should have been working the implicit collusion and making the weak hands pay dearly for their draws. Maybe calling two bets would have been enough to drive out the eventual super-weak-hand winner and at least the SB would have gotten the pot he deserved.

And I still wish a 4 had hit the board.

Nottom · #2 04-05-2004, 10:15 PM

Preflop: If you want to raise the limpers thats fine, 3-betting is a mistake.

Flop: well you have some insane odds because of the preflop craziness so I guess you have to call.

Turn: The pot is still huge here, so you have to call with a possible 6 outer.

River: This part is easy.

I'm a big fan of pumping the pot, but I don't think this is the place to do it. If you hit, most of you outs are pretty solid so getting rid of overcards shouldn't be a big concern of yours. The guy with JJ on the other hand all but gave this pot away.

Tosh · #3 04-05-2004, 10:16 PM

Why didn't you raise in the first place ?

Solitare · #4 04-06-2004, 12:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you raise in the first place ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, I should have.

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: If you want to raise the limpers thats fine, 3-betting is a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the initial raise is correct, 3-betting is more correct. The pot is bigger and more players are involved, with nearly the same implied odds if I hit my draw (decreased by the fact that the raiser may have a quality hand, as he did).

Ed Miller · #5 04-06-2004, 12:11 AM

Based on Ed Miller's posts I reraised my pocket threes after limping due to 7 other players in the pot with 6 needing only to call one bet. Unfortunately, I didn't follow up on the later rounds.

Huh?

Solitare · #6 04-06-2004, 12:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a big fan of pumping the pot, but I don't think this is the place to do it. If you hit, most of you outs are pretty solid so getting rid of overcards shouldn't be a big concern of yours. The guy with JJ on the other hand all but gave this pot away.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this misses the point. I pump after the flop not to get rid of overcards but because I win way more than my fair share of pots. Based on expected value, I've got the best winning chances (marginally) post flop, despite the JJs having the best hand.

Nottom · #7 04-06-2004, 12:20 AM

The problem is that if you raise you probably don't get enough calls to get any value from the raise. By calling you encourage calls from hands that are basically drawing dead should you hit.

Nottom · #8 04-06-2004, 12:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If the initial raise is correct, 3-betting is more correct. The pot is bigger and more players are involved, with nearly the same implied odds if I hit my draw (decreased by the fact that the raiser may have a quality hand, as he did).

[/ QUOTE ]

But one of the reasons you raise the first time is to buy the button and potentially get a free turn card and increase your chances of spiking a set. I suppose there is some value in pumping the pot with 8 players since you will spike a set one time in 7.5 but its a very thin value raise at best.