my new bad habit: getting passive in position

[Spicymoose]

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If we're convinced he has top pair or better, why are we raising?

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Because he could have uno cards?

[SparkyDog]

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Well, for a more aggro opponent, they could be betting a lot there. Any pair, a draw, monsters, Uno cards, who knows. Maybe some of that they would checkraise with, but who would they be checkraising? So why would you want to give him the chance to get off the hook with a worse hand, while 3-betting you with hands that beat you?

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I still don't understand. What hands are you concerned about him getting off "cheaply" with? How often is Villian bet-folding this flop?

Not raising because his betting range is wide seems like it has some faulty reasoning somewhere along the line.

[RunDownHouse]

SpicyBullwinkle,

My first inclination was also that it was an easy turn raise. Upon further reflection, I still raise the turn, and I think that raising the turn, in general, is a good play. The fact that this particular turn brought three to a straight makes it much closer, but if the turn was a blank we'd have much less discussion.

Fraternally Yours,
RunDownHouse

[Kumubou]

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If we're convinced he has top pair or better, why are we raising?

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On the river? Because now we are ahead of a bunch of hands that we were behind before (like AK, 97, etc.)

Before then? I'm not quite sure. I'm not even sure if I would let it get to the river. Sure folding TP is weaksauce, especially in a shorthanded game -- but if this player is passive and predictable and that is the read, act on it. The pot is tiny.

Against an unknown, I think his hand range is wider than just top pair.

-K

[SparkyDog]

Dilapidated Domicile,

What kind of river cards are you checking behind here, or are you at all? I wouldn't this one because 5s and 10s are unlikely cards to reside in the villian's hand, and if he checked it he likely doesn't have the straight as he'd be afraid you'd check it through.

How does the 3 straight make it much closer though? Aside from making two pair more likely, it doesn't seem that villian will have made a straight from the 8 all that often (JT probably being the most frequently held).

[Peter Harris]

i like the turn raise - when you have TP and pick up the OESD, you can see what SB's reaction is - if 3bet call and fold a river that doesn't help. Since the river did, call.

If SB flat calls the turn, you can bet if checked to on this river as the flat call probably indicates no straight draw and your 2pr is goot.

[POKhER]

Raise the flop, Bet the turn, Umm Umm Umm value bet the river.

Ummmm, without a read... Was can probably bet/fold it although i hate missing showdowns. Infact it tends to make me tilt a bit.

[Wynton]

After some sleep, I've decided that my post was, alas, results-oriented.

This hand was a repeat of what has happened to me several times in the last few days. Specifically, I flop top pair in bb, after no one showed aggression pf. It's headsup. Sb bets. I believe SB has something like middle pair, but possibly top pair, better kicker (very much like wa/wb). My read is that if I call the flop, he'll definitely bet the turn, but there is some doubt whether he'll call a raise on the flop. So the real issue for me usually is whether to raise the turn or wait until the river to raise.

But here - as in the other times - someone actually picks up a draw on a turn, and runner runners a better hand; thus, villain here ended up with a straight, after starting with middle pair.

Yet, I realize now that the chances of such a backdoor draw developing are relatively rare, or at least unlikely enough that it should not be my concern hu.

To recap, I feel fine about the flop call. The tricky decision for me in general is whether to raise the turn or wait until the river, which I guess is where we have to rely on reads.

Now here is how I analyze the decision whether to raise he turn in general, and <u>this is what I'd really like to discuss now</u> :

(1) If I raise the turn and my opponent folds, I might have lost 1 bb, because some people who will fold the turn raise may be willing to fire a river bet.
(2) On the other hand, some will pay off a turn raise and river bet, even with a worse hand.
(3) Alternatively, if my turn raise gets flat called, I can decide whether to check behind the river, if I suspect my opponent might have me beat but (a) too cautious to reraise the turn; or (b) planning a c/r on the river.
(4) If I just call call the turn, I might be able to entice villain into betting the river with a worse hand, giving me a chance to raise the river. Villain may fold, but if he does, he may well have folded to the turn raise too, making the delay a positive move. Or villain may call.
(5) Another possibility if I wait until the river for a raise, is that villain will check/fold the river. But again, if he does that, he was probably not going to call the turn raise without a decent draw.
(6) Yet another possibility if I wait until river to raise is that villain will c/c. Then the issue is whether such an opponent would have called the turn raise as well as the river.
(7) Finally, by waiting until the river for my planned raise, I can just c/c should a troublesome board appear, like in the hand I posted.

Did I leave out any considerations?