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#1
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Ace high
this was from my 20/40 live session the other day
weakish player open limps EMP. aggro sb raies. i 3-bet in the bb with AK. EMP calls. sb calls. flop: 987 r sb checks. i bet. emp folds. sb checkraises. i call. turn: 8 sb bets i call. river: 3 sb bets i call. |
#2
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Re: Ace high
Standard.
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#3
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Re: Ace high
Why is this standard?
- Jim |
#4
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Re: Ace high
Jason thinks I should post more than "standard." Basically I'm a fish who [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s Ace high calldowns but against an aggro opponent you're getting 8.5:2 on a calldown, and being good 1 time in 5.5 is going to be pretty damned easy. I've played against a lot of villains where this is a river fold, because they won't triple barrel you, but as I've moved up I've found people willing to committ a ton of bets in pots that are big (and this one is) trying to move you off anything.
You need to be good here about 18% of the time to show a profit. Against an aggressive villain you will be good close to that amount anyway (esp. against AT/KT/QT). In a situation where the calldown looks to be +EV you also get to see if villain is capable of triple barrel bluffing in the future. Additionally you don't actually need to be good quite 18% on your calldown as sometimes you'll improve and sometimes a river will show up that means you really can't call (JT6). So yeah. It's not a fun calldown and one that you can only make against certain opponents, but against that sort (who Chris seemed to identify but his read was pretty limited), it's +EV. Rob |
#5
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Dumb math
I did this in my head while driving so someone can correct me if it's off. I figured if he's capable of triple barrell bluffing about 20% of the time he has a draw, then it's a good calldown from the turn on.
Basically it goes something like this: Range of hands: Hands that beat us: JTs - 4 JJ/TT - 12 99 - 3 77 - 3 88 - 1 Total - 23 hands. Maybe add A9s-ish hands for 2 or maybe 3, depending on suits, more combinations. 25 hands we're losing to. Draws: AT/KT - 12+12 = 24 combos QTs - 4 combos 28 total combos. If he's capable of triple-barrel bluffing 20% of the time that he has a draw, averaging our calldown out to around 4.5:1 (it's not quite as bad as odds of 4.25:1 because there are some rivers that we will fold and some improvement we can have against his range of "good" hands), then he has .2x28=5.6 combos that we're ahead of, and 25 combos that we're behind. We're good 5.6/30.6 times. 25 times we lose 2 bets (-50BB) and 5.6 times we win a 10.5BB pot (58.8BB). 8.8BB/30.6 possibilities gives us a profit of around .287BB. Most aggressive opposition will have a higher TBB frequency -- from my experience -- than 20% here. I don't think it's as high as 50% or anything ridiculous but I definitely think it's high enough to make the calldown "standard," to try to flesh out sfer's (I refuse to call him The DaveR) one-word comment. Jason mentioned to me over AIM that we could possibly add T9s and J9s to the PFR hands, but once we start to add a wider range, in general, we can increase the overall aggression of the player and the range of hands he'd be willing to play more aggressively after the flop. I honestly think that we can expect a TBB rate of around 25% when he's holding a semibluffing hand (7 total bluffs), we're looking at being good around 19.4%, which is still going to show a bit of a profit. Rob |
#6
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Re: Ace high
Fine if by agro you mean someone who can CR you on a whiff even though you 3-bet from the BB. Otherwise, he's standing on the table telling you he has a pair.
- Jim |
#7
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Re: Ace high
[ QUOTE ]
Fine if by agro you mean someone who can CR you on a whiff even though you 3-bet from the BB. Otherwise, he's standing on the table telling you he has a pair. - Jim [/ QUOTE ] No, he's standing on the table telling you that if you don't raise the turn, you don't have a pair. He's got a pair or a draw or just plain air a fair amount of the time and he's betting because that's how many people hand over pots (c/r-call bet-call bet-fold). Sure smells an awful lot like AT. But yeah. He's aggro? Standard. Rob |
#8
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Re: Ace high
In a live 20-40 game, this player has to be a special kind of aggro to be doing this with air given the PF 3-bet from our hero. Or maybe if there's prior history not given either.
But like I said, if he's that kind of agro, sure - call down. - Jim |
#9
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Re: Ace high
[ QUOTE ]
Sure smells an awful lot like AT. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. |
#10
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Re: Ace high
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Sure smells an awful lot like AT. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. [/ QUOTE ] Why are we putting villain on exactly one hand? |
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