Party $20+2: AKs first hand - Do we gamble?

[tjh]

[ QUOTE ]
I want to say insta call but i see AA-KK sOOOO often come out of this line. It's so obvious. That said, since AA-KK is shown so often, is 2-1 really a good price here? Don't get me wrong, I will usually call, but your gonna get shown AA-KK most of the time, from my observations. I'd say about 65% at the most conservative estimate. I dont know though, its seems more like 80% of the time to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, are we playing at the same site ?? Do you have PokerTracker? Can you post some data to support this wild hypothesis that the players are good ??

I have hand histories of all-ins in the first level with K-4. These can not be the same players.

You remember the AA-KK and confirmation bias clouds your judgement perhaps?
--
tjh

[xJMPx]

I think he's talking specifically about the limp-push line taken here by the villain. But I've seen it often enough by mid-pairs to say it's probably not AA/KK 80%.

As for this hand, I dunno...with your line I think I would go ahead and call after committing 1/4 of my stack. However, I think there could be an argument to just limping with all the preflop limps infront and play this as a drawing hand.

[tjh]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he's talking specifically about the limp-push line taken here by the villain. But I've seen it often enough by mid-pairs to say it's probably not AA/KK 80%.



[/ QUOTE ]

I think the BB pushed so this is not a limp-push.

If UTG limps and then pushes to a raise.... I am seriously concerned. BB push ... less concerned. UTG strong hands are concerned about not getting any callers so they limp with monsters, once raised they push.

I posted some first round all-in data about a week ago. My sample was small but it did show some really low hands going allin in level one.

here they are...
I did not have all that many SNG's in my Pokertracker DB. From what I did have I grabbed the hands from all the times that players went all-in and were called by another player in level one on party.

Here are they hands. They are paired or tripled for hands that are from the same all-in event. These are what they are pushing or calling a push with in level one.


[ Ac, Ah ]
[ Ks, Qh ]

[ Ad, Ac ]
[ Qs, Jc ]

[ 9s, 9c ]
[ 3s, 3c ]

[ Kc, Ks ]
[ 9s, 9c ]

[ Ad, Qh ]
[ 9s, 9c ]

[ Jc, 8c ]
[ 7d, 7c ]

[ Ks, Ts ]
[ Tc, Ad ]

[ Th, Td ]
[ Qs, Ad ]

[ As, Qs ]
[ 8c, 8h ]

[ Qs, Qd ]
[ Th, Ts ]

[ Kc, Jh ]
[ 7c, 7s ]

[ Ks, Ac ]
[ 9s, 9d ]

[ 6h, 6d ]
[ Ah, Ad ]

[ Qd, Kh ]
[ Kc, Ks ]
[ As, Ah ]

[ Jc, Jh ]
[ Kh, Ac ]

[ Ad, As ]
[ Ks, 4d ]

[ Qd, Qs ]
[ Td, Ad ]
[ Jh, Js ]

[ Jh, Ks ]
[ 7d, 7h ]
[ Jc, As ]

Looks like a coinflip more often than KK or AA.

I would bet that first hand stats are even crazier than level one in general.

First level deserves some special consideration, they are crazy then.
--
tjh

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the BB pushed so this is not a limp-push.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, I was mistaken. Makes it easier as you say, now you'll see a much larger range of hands then when someone limps-pushes.

It is an insta push. Double up or fire up a new one. If you lose it was an easy $4.

Very big possibility that I'm bias. That's why i edited my post to ask for the same data you are asking for. Also, let me restate that I normally call here....

Oh yeah, and many of my obsevations are also from MTT's. I think that makes a big difference and you will be shown AA-KK more often in MTT's.

[LesJ]

Just random observation here, but tonight in the 11s I saw two players all-in preflop. There hands were KQs and J5o respectively. J5o won the hand, of course, but donked off all their chips before level one was even over.
Les