Quick Question

[Matt Flynn]

Mason,

Thanks for the reply. I'd appreciate your help understanding this.

You said: "Game Theory tells us that against opponents who play correctly we should bluff more in small pots that in large ones (as long as the bet is the same size). This seems to imply the opposite of what you are suggesting."

However, raising the blinds isn't bluffing. At worst it's semibluffing. You will end up having a higher bluff:nonbluff _ratio_, but that's in large part because your equity is reduced by the rake, reducing the non-bluff value of your holdings.

The threshold you set for raising is all situations where you believe EV is > 0, with a lot of the equity on marginal raising hands coming from stealing the blinds. If 0.45 small bets are taken from the pot, your EV drops. If the blinds do not adjust at all, all of your marginal raises now become negative EV. So you should play tighter.

Assume the blinds adjust appropriately. Can you argue why collectively they make a larger adjustment than you do?

Put another way, equity goes down across the board. All players lose. So therefore your EV for raising must decrease unless the blinds collectively give up enough additional equity to overcome the loss of the $72. Which they won't if they are adjusting optimally. So EV goes down across the board.

With the lower EV, your marginal hands become negative EV. So don't you have to reduce the number of raising hands?

And specifically, yes, in your new game theoretic setpoint you WILL be bluffing more PROPORTIONALLY, but does that mean you are bluffing more absolutely? Not if your equity goes down across the board, forcing you to play tighter.

Any thoughts? What'd I miss?

Matt

[Matt Flynn]

n/m

[Matt Flynn]

Sorry - I was assuming the rake was taken whenever the pot was raised, in which case you must tighten up.

If the rake's only taken when there is a flop, yes, looser raising. Thanks.

Matt

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Matt:

I agree that raising the blinds when first in late is not a bluff, but there certainly are similarities. Specifically, most of the time that you raise, you prefer that everyone fold.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Tommy Angelo]

When a time pot is in play, I usually go from being the tightest player in the game to the tightest player in the world. My change-up in starting standards during time pots pays me about $10/hour in saved expenses.

Tommy

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi ACPlayer:

The position of both David Sklansky and myself is that TTH plays so badly you can't draw any conclusions about it concerning anything that deals with real life hold 'em games.

I don't what Abdul's simulations may or may not have shown, but are you telling me that you would fold a pair of nines or AJ in this spot? I don't think you need any simulations to know the answer.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Tommy:

Let's say I'm on the button in a time pot and if I raise and pick up the blinds there is no drop. Furthermore, let's also assume the tightest player in the world is in the big blind and everyone in front of me has passed. Do I even need to look at my cards?

best wishes,
Mason

[ACPlayer]

I think that TTH is a tool that of course provides data for us to interpret and perhaps discard. I have not exhaustively studied it but suspect that it plays an approximately correct mathematical strategy and a generally incorrect expert strategy (as it has no game theoretic knowledge).

No I would not fold the hands you mentioned in late position, but here the game theory rules more.

But, yes I would tight up a notch or two in early position as, when I am called or raised by a better hand will have poorer odds and hence game theory rules less here. And this is generally confirmed by both experience and the TTH information.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

instead of penalizing one person with a pot with a huge chunk of rake taken out of it? What's wrong with "$8 for time."

al

[MMMMMM]

Not sure about TTH, but their Hi-Lo Stud software played absolutely god-awful when I tried it out perhaps 2 years ago. Even worse IMO than K.A. Coddington's advice;-)