Can I bet this river? $200 6max

Sponger15SB · #1 10-15-2005, 06:26 PM

I've got $195, Villiam has $150.

LAG idiot raises UTG to $7, I call with AQo, folded to Villian in the BB who calls.

Villian is 42/5 after 50 hands.

Flop is T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villian checks, LAG idiot checks, I bet $15, Villian calls, LAG folds.

Turn is a 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villian bets $20 into a $50 pot and I call.

River is a 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villian checks and Hero is confused on what to do...

mason55 · #2 10-15-2005, 06:36 PM

Are either of your cards hearts? That's kind of important in this hand.

#3 10-15-2005, 06:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I've got $195, Villiam has $150.

LAG idiot raises UTG to $7, I call with AQo, folded to Villian in the BB who calls.

Villian is 42/5 after 50 hands.

Flop is T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villian checks, LAG idiot checks, I bet $15, Villian calls, LAG folds.

Turn is a 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villian bets $20 into a $50 pot and I call.

River is a 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villian checks and Hero is confused on what to do...

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. I probably check behind. You only have one pair and the pot is already decent. I think a lot of times he has QQ or A-6 here. He slowplayed the flop b/c he had a set. Then when the board paired up he donktastically decided he needed to slowplay more. (Same deal with A-6 except he got lucky and hit the river.) He could also have AA or KK. He might have been bluffing...who the hell knows. He could have a scared KQ. Still I wouldn't be comfortable calling a c/r here, so I'd probably just check behind and see the free showdown for a decent pot.

Sponger15SB · #4 10-15-2005, 06:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are either of your cards hearts? That's kind of important in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

mason55 · #5 10-15-2005, 06:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are either of your cards hearts? That's kind of important in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Hrm. If you had the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] it would be an easy check behind. Without it I could see K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] playing it this way when he picks up his flush draw on the turn. I think I bet 1/2 - 2/3 pot and get called by Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] enough to make it +EV. Fold to a CR.

Andrew Fletcher · #6 10-15-2005, 06:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think a lot of times he has QQ or A-6 here. He slowplayed the flop b/c he had a set. Then when the board paired up he donktastically decided he needed to slowplay more. (Same deal with A-6 except he got lucky and hit the river.) He could also have AA or KK. He might have been bluffing...who the hell knows.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't decide if this is a brilliant analyis of most small stakes players or totally useless. It's a weird series of bets.

He might think OP has a couple of hearts. I think QK/QJ is the most likey holding, given his action PF and on the flop-- when a heart doesn't hit on the turn he decides to fire off a bet.

mason55 · #7 10-15-2005, 07:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]

He might think OP has a couple of hearts. I think QK/QJ is the most likey holding, given his action PF and on the flop-- when a heart doesn't hit on the turn he decides to fire off a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

By hearts you mean diamonds?

#8 10-15-2005, 07:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a lot of times he has QQ or A-6 here. He slowplayed the flop b/c he had a set. Then when the board paired up he donktastically decided he needed to slowplay more. (Same deal with A-6 except he got lucky and hit the river.) He could also have AA or KK. He might have been bluffing...who the hell knows.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't decide if this is a brilliant analyis of most small stakes players or totally useless. It's a weird series of bets.

He might think OP has a couple of hearts. I think QK/QJ is the most likey holding, given his action PF and on the flop-- when a heart doesn't hit on the turn he decides to fire off a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like brillant. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I really don't know what villain has either, but I want to see a showdown. I'm not saying betting is bad, but I don't really think it matters much.

mason55 · #9 10-15-2005, 07:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Still I wouldn't be comfortable calling a c/r here, so I'd probably just check behind and see the free showdown for a decent pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way villain has played this pot you're not getting CRed by a worse hand. The more I think about this the more I think that a value bet on the river is the right play.

slydeni · #10 10-15-2005, 07:09 PM

yah, check here.
It smells fishy whatever it is. I'll tell you what would help is what kindof image you have in the villain's eyes. If you have been playing agg. he may be enticing you into a river bet and then a nice check raise -- in which case, we do not walk in to it. Maybe you are a rock in his eyes and never bet the river - in which case we may want to fire at him.

It does smell of either qk, or maybe a set. i could see him betting this wsy with 88, 1010, qq, kk, and aa ( i know latter 2 aren't sets, but you get my drift. ) And if he had 99 he has double belly draw, and may be taking a stab on turn. I think he has either a full house, or a busted draw, and is playing it weak. Again, his thougths on you would illuminate this even more.

sly