"Official" Live at the Bike thread (9/16)

hmmm, two thoughts...

first off - I'm not sure I explained it well, but here goes.

If there is $2800 dead money in the pot and you're faced with an all-in bet of $1300 on the river, you have a few options. One obviously is fold and lose the money already inveested. But if you know the player is going to "run" the river more than once, you can call because of the dead money in the middle. Think about it...Mo calls with his aces knowing Ed will run the river three times. If Ed is bluffing great, then MO is ahead. If Ed has two pair...then Mo has 8 outs. If you run it three times, the odds are that Mo will probably hit one of those outs once. Yes, each turn and river has the same odds...but do it three times, see what happens. Anyway, if Mo wins just one of those three times, he'll get 1/3 of the entire pot - not just the last $1300 in there, but also the $2800 that's already dead in the middle. So Mo is risking $1300...but in most circumstances, he'll win at least $1800 (1/3rd of the pot).

Get it?

Flip a coin - heads or tails right? But, what are the odds of hitting 10 heads in a row? Think of it that way.


As for Barry Woods, I spoke to him. He gave me a long explanation of the night's hands - hopefully he'll post something. If not, I'll talk about it next week.

Have a good weekend everyone...

I will be out of town until Tuesday afternoon. If anyone wants a pseudo explanation (read not defense) of some of my play on Friday, especially against Kenna, please post your questions here. I will try to explain the best I can as to why I did what I did, and some of my thoughts. In the alternative, Dave, Mo and I sat and discussed some of the moves, and Dave, being more articulate than I (and better memory), will be happy to give some insights into the inner thoughts of a donkey.

I appreciate your thoughts and musings.

Barry K. Woods (not Greenstein) [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[BarronVangorToth]

Kevmath, sounds like a savage episode - is this "one of those episodes" that you seek out from the archives when it's up...?

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[Kevmath]

This is definitely a show to watch from the archives, although you may want to go to around the 2:20 mark where Kenna v Barry takes place. The rest of the show is the usual Friday night fare, but that was the best hand on L@TB.

[siccjay]

So the game is always that loose? I was pretty amazed at a couple of the players.

[Kevmath]

At times it is, especially if Jesus, Diablo, and Ed are in the game.

[Jive Dadson]

[ QUOTE ]


Flip a coin - heads or tails right? But, what are the odds of hitting 10 heads in a row? Think of it that way.


[/ QUOTE ]

The chance of hitting 10 heads in a row is 1/1024. That has nothing to do with the question of why Mo called that bet.

Running it multiple times does not change your EV at all. There's nothing more to be said. People devise all sorts on intricate arguments for roulette systems - Martingales and whatnot. You can try to understand and poke holes in the arguments, or you can simply point out that varying your bet size does not change your EV at all.

Running it multiple times does not change your EV. If it was wrong to call, it was wrong to call, regardless of how many times you are going to run it.

P.s.

I don't appreciate being asked, "Get it?" I get a whole heck of a lot more than you give me credit for.