Easy call down?

[Yeknom58]

I'm thinking hands like JcTc or Js9s might CR. He could easily think that you have overcards and thinks his 9 or T in addition to his draw is worth a CR.

But what I'm basically saying is I'm calling or raising and I wouldn't even think of folding in this larege pot.

[Trix]

I think you can fold.

[House-Lion]

I don't think KK should be folded. Any JT or even someone with a good flush-draw or str-draw with the top-pair good kicker could do this raise, specially on party-poker.

I have seen this raise a lot of times when someone picks up the back-door-flush-draw to go with their top-pair.

Same play would be done by another over-pair like JJ or QQ just calling from the BB.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
With so many people in the pot, it's doubtful BB is raising anything less than 2 pair. You're getting protection from a lot of other players. I'd fold to the turn check-raise as you're drawing dead to a possible straight.

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, he could be drawing dead to a straight, but he's getting 13:1 to call the check-raise (assuming the two players behind him call) and could easily have 8 outs. He has to be very sure he's against a straight or set to fold here.

-- Homer

[Saborion]

The pot was big and I could see him doing with this with a pair + draw, two pair, a set or a straight. Because of this I have to call the turn bet and see what happens. When the river card pairs it may have saved me, so I have to call. I think I would have called even if the river had been a rag, but I sure wouldn't have liked it. Any point in calling the river with an overpair in that spot?

Anyway.
BB had 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for the turned straight.
UTG+1 had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for turned middle pair.

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, he could be drawing dead to a straight, but he's getting 13:1 to call the check-raise (assuming the two players behind him call) and could easily have 8 outs. He has to be very sure he's against a straight or set to fold here.

-- Homer

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm…Let’s see if I can do the expectation math here.

Let's assume BB is not semi-bluffing into a big pot with tons of people and has a made hand of 2 pair or better. And let's assume he'll play any 2 from the BB for the one extra bet when you raised.

There are 16 combinations of J8, which make a straight.

There are 16 combinations of 68, which make a straight.

So there can be no positive expectation in this case. In 32 chances of an opponent holding a straight, you are throwing your money away.

There are 3 different pair combinations for each card on the turn for sets. So there are 12 set permutations. You have 2 outs in these cases. At 11:1 immediate odds and 13:1 implied assuming other callers. This is still bad considering you're a 22:1 dog.

There are 9 combinations for each possible combination of 2 cards on the board including T5, T7, T9, 97, 95 and 75. There are 9*6 or 54 combinations of two pair. Now this one has possibilities since pairing the board or spiking a set can save you. This has possible positive expectation for your money.

So there are 80 combinations of this particular opponent’s cards you’re behind against. The expectation can be calculated by taking the probabilities of each case, multiplying them by the return and summing them. We’ll assume the other players will call the turn check-raise so you’re getting 13:1 instead of 11:1.

In straight combinations, you’re drawing dead. You’ll gain (0/46)*13 = 0 bets if you win and (46/46)*(-1) = -1 bet if you lose. This nets to -1 bet.

In set combinations, you’re getting 13:1 (assuming others call) on your money on a 21:1 dog. Out of 46 river cards, 2 are assumed to be a pair in the opponent’s hand, which leaves 44 unknowns, two of which contain a K. You’ll gain (2/44)*13 = 0.59 bets if you win and (42/44)*(-1) = -0.95 bets if you lose. This nets to -.36 bets.

In two pair combinations, you’re getting 13:1 on your money, and you’re hoping to counterfeit one of his two pair combinations or hit a set against it, which is 46:8. So you’ll gain (8/46)*13 = 2.26 bets if you win, and (38/46)*(-1) = -.86 bets if you lose. This nets to 1.4 bets.

Expectation: ((32/80)*(-1) + (12/80)*(-.36) + (36/80)*(1.4)) = 0.08 bets

Ah, a positive expectation to call the turn check-raise if you knew that your opponent had two pair or better, right?

But there are several other factors: (1) With so many people in the pot, it's entirely possible the pairing of the board can make trips for someone else. (2) It’s a two-tone turn with 2 possible flushes coming on the river. (3) Mantras: "call the turn, call the river", and “fold early, call late”, which means even if the KKs don't improve players tend to call due to the size of the pot...otherwise known as the "crying call". Our hero has indicated that he was willing to call one more bet on the river without improvement, so he stands to lose 2 bets instead of the theoretical 1.

You can't even raise the river if you spike the K in any confidence because of the straight on board.

So in fact I don't think he has to be very sure he has a set or straight to fold, he only needs to be pretty sure he is behind to fold.

If anyone has found an error in my calculations, please bring it to my attention.

Garland