Houston Rockets are going to the finals, you can put money on it.

[Brad F.]

A pretty silly thread here if you ask me. Two Houston homers trying to talk biased smack about their team.

Let's look at thw Western Conference from an analytical standpoint. I love the Western Conference in the NBA, growing up in Denver I am a big Nuggets fan and the rest of the conference has always played good basketball, with the Nugs just coming into the mix. My dad was a very big Blazer fan up until the mid nineties, so I grew up watching western conference teams all the time. I've read SI predictions, ESPN predictions, and I feel like this is going to be the tightest conference in the common era of the NBA.

Here's a quick look at the top 8 or so WC teams:

1) Spurs. I really don't need to go into depth here do I? They added talent, and they were the best team in basketball last year.
2) Nuggets. Now before you flame me for being a homer, I don't think the Nugs are the 2nd best team in the WC, they will just be seeded here because 1, they won't have much quality competition in the Northwest, and 2, the Pacific is weak and Sacramento/Pheonix/Lakers all will not match the Nuggets record. The Nuggets had the best record in basketball the second half, got Voshon Lenard back and picked up a gret defensive PG in Earl Watson. They should grab the 2nd seed.
3) Sacramento. Probably the 5th best tewm in the West, maybe the 6th, but their division is weak. The Suns lost Joe Johnson and Amare and they can still beat an improved Sacramento team for the division? I don't think so. The addition of Kenny Thomas along with Brad Miller, Bibby and Stojakovic equals a good team.
4) Dallas Mavericks. They are a more well-rounded team than the Rockets. They have a deeper bench, Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels are improving, Jason Terry is going to have a better season, and Dirk is better than Yao overall. You can make an argument that the Rockets go here, but I think the Rockets are slightly below.
5) Houston Rockets. The team did start to mesh last year, but they still have holes. Juwan Howard/Stromile Swift isn't sn entirely impressive PF tandem. SG is also an issue with David Wesely/Derek Anderson sharing time. Sura is a workhorse, and proved his worth down the stretch last season. Maybe the 3rd best team behind the Spurs/Mavs, but maybe the 4th.
6) Seattle Sonics. Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen, Radmanovic, Luke Collison, Ridnour. Good players, can they create the same output they had at the beginning of last year?
7) Pheonix Suns. Steve Nash leads a torn apart Suns team. We will have to see how Raja and Thomas do with bigger roles. Jim Jackson is solid, but I don't see this team doing much in the regular season. We'll need to watch out come playoff time though.
8) Minnesota/LA Lakers/LA Clippers/Utah/Golden State. Who knows, all these teams could creep up even into a 7 spot.

These are my thoughts. Just wanted to put some actual analysis in there for the Houston lovers.

Brad

[DCJ311]

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Holy crap! 7 point favorites??? In November??? What the hell was I thinking??? Tell me Houston is at home, too! Wait ... what's that ... it's also the second of a back-to-back for Sacramento? Wow!

PS how could the Steelers only win by 1 last night? The books had them as 13 point favorites!

Fool.

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The main difference between me and you is that you're a pompous douche who knows nothing about sports and I make a living betting on it. If the Kings are slightly better than the Rockets as you say, the line should be Rockets -1. I'll wager any amount up to $5k on the Rockets at that line if you're willing to book it. Thoughts?

[Brad F.]

You obviously know nothing about lines, especially opening night NBA lines.

Even if the Kings were 'slightly' better, the line would still be -5 or 6 Rockets. The Rockets would be at -3 over the Spurs if they met in game one.

Brad

[TwoNiner]

[ QUOTE ]
A pretty silly thread here if you ask me. Two Houston homers trying to talk biased smack about their team...
...Houston Rockets. The team did start to mesh last year, but they still have holes. Juwan Howard/Stromile Swift isn't sn entirely impressive PF tandem. SG is also an issue with David Wesely/Derek Anderson sharing time. Sura is a workhorse, and proved his worth down the stretch last season. Maybe the 3rd best team behind the Spurs/Mavs, but maybe the 4th.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your informed opinion about the Rockets. You obviously have a firm grasp on things.

1-Bob Sura isn't the starting PG Alston is.

2- The team didn't magically "mesh" last year. They acquired much better personell than they had before and went 36-16 from January on. To that team that won at a 69% clip they added 2 players Derek Anderson, Rafer Alston, who are good enough to start ahead of last year's players. And a third Stomile Swift who is splitting time and will be starting by season's end. They improved every position besides T-Mac and Yao Ming.

3-"Juwan Howard/Stromile Swift isn't sn entirely impressive PF tandem" It sure as hell is more impressive than Juwan Howard/Ryan Bowen. I'd say they improved significantly.

No way I would bet Houston to win the West at 10-1. Spurs are too good and there are other tough teams to beat. But like the one guy said, the people real off on this thread are the ones arguing against logic and Vegas. And as I said above, since this is a gambling website and hopefully we like to gamble and have expendable cash around. Someone please take me up on the rediculous predictions for the Rockets.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Holy crap! 7 point favorites??? In November??? What the hell was I thinking??? Tell me Houston is at home, too! Wait ... what's that ... it's also the second of a back-to-back for Sacramento? Wow!

PS how could the Steelers only win by 1 last night? The books had them as 13 point favorites!

Fool.

[/ QUOTE ]


The main difference between me and you is that you're a pompous douche who knows nothing about sports and I make a living betting on it. If the Kings are slightly better than the Rockets as you say, the line should be Rockets -1. I'll wager any amount up to $5k on the Rockets at that line if you're willing to book it. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts are that, based on your highly intelligent posts, the chances are good that (1) I will never see the $5000, (2) the money will be counterfeit, or (3) you would pay me over many years, in rolls of nickels. So, I will respectfully decline your most generous offer, although I am sure my decision not to take a bet from some anonymous teenager whose posts demonstrate that he would have difficulty even counting to 5,000 will be met with the response that I am a "pussy". Such are the trials and tribulations of being a pompous douche.

Your opinions are not unreasonable. My personal feeling is that you are ignoring some obvious considerations, such as the fact that Stromile Swift has yet to shed his "potential" label in his 5 years in the league. Could he this year, with Van Gundy? Sure. Suffice it to say that, in my opinion, a lot -- a whole lot -- has to go right this year for Houston to win the West, which is the opinion that started this thread. But one cannot reasonably say that they are not in the mix of 6 or 7 teams that could come out of the conference.

But you are right for sure that we should look at this in terms of a wager. I see that Houston is +700 to win the West on Olympic. I think that's way too low to consider a wager (and you seem to agree with that). I would take Dallas at +1000 if I was looking for a wager with some value in the west.

[ QUOTE ]
Your opinions are not unreasonable. My personal feeling is that you are ignoring some obvious considerations, such as the fact that Stromile Swift has yet to shed his "potential" label in his 5 years in the league. Could he this year, with Van Gundy? Sure. Suffice it to say that, in my opinion, a lot -- a whole lot -- has to go right this year for Houston to win the West, which is the opinion that started this thread. But one cannot reasonably say that they are not in the mix of 6 or 7 teams that could come out of the conference.

But you are right for sure that we should look at this in terms of a wager. I see that Houston is +700 to win the West on Olympic. I think that's way too low to consider a wager (and you seem to agree with that). I would take Dallas at +1000 if I was looking for a wager with some value in the west.

[/ QUOTE ]

I too think Dallas is an undervalued squad in the West.

[TwoNiner]

Heads up: CRIS has Dallas at +1400 to win the West. I think that may be a fair price if you have high expectations for Dallas, but in the end you are still going to be left with a pretty crappy bet of Dallas against San Antonio, which isn't going to be fun to hedge with San Antonio's heavy price (if you even get it in the Finals). I think your better off just playing the season total. The risk you run there is if say Dirk goes down for a stretch but is back for the playoffs, then you'd rather have the championship bet.

[ QUOTE ]
Heads up: CRIS has Dallas at +1400 to win the West. I think that may be a fair price if you have high expectations for Dallas, but in the end you are still going to be left with a pretty crappy bet of Dallas against San Antonio, which isn't going to be fun to hedge with San Antonio's heavy price (if you even get it in the Finals). I think your better off just playing the season total. The risk you run there is if say Dirk goes down for a stretch but is back for the playoffs, then you'd rather have the championship bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was just a thought, I'm not going to play it. Thanks for the tip.

[DCJ311]

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You obviously know nothing about lines, especially opening night NBA lines.

Even if the Kings were 'slightly' better, the line would still be -5 or 6 Rockets. The Rockets would be at -3 over the Spurs if they met in game one.

Brad

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Wrong. If you have two teams of equal strength playing one another, the home team will be about -3. On neutral site, they will be pk. Therefore, if the Rockets are equal to the Kings in strength, they will be -3. If they are slightly worse, they will be -1 or -2. If they are clearly worse, the Kings would be a road favorite.

By the way, 'opening night' lines are no different than lines available the rest of the year. What an ignorant statement.

Please keep quiet and let the real professionals do the talking.