When to fold the overpairs?

[DCWGaming]

I was looking through my database at my biggest losing/winning hands...
A very large % of the losing hands are quite simply hands I cannot and probably will not ever be able to get away from. Set v set, all in preflop with AA/KK, etc. About 1/3 of my top losing hands are overpairs on uncoordinated boards where my opponent hit a set.

My problem is that I cant really find a place to fold. On my top winning hands list, I've got just as many hands where the opponent played exactly the same way as the people with a set or ragged 2p or whatever, but I was way ahead and stacked them. It seems like in this situation, it is often someone trying to slow play QQ or JJ by just calling (exactly the way someone would try to play a low pair trying to make a set), and then wake up on the flop or turn after "slowplaying" their JJ vs my AA on a ragged board.


How do you all deal? Do you just have to go with your gut every time you run into a raise when you're carrying AA on that J72 board?

Any tips appreciated.

Thx [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[4_2_it]

Villain reads are the only thing you can go with. Take notes on how a villain stacked your AA with a set and when you play him again, don't fall into the same trap twice.

I am fine losing $$$ HU with AA on an uncoordinated rainbow flop to the average NL $100 or $200 villain. I think you are giving up way too much value going out of your way looking for a fold without a read. With a read, I have no problem folding to 3 or 4 bets on the flop, but w/out a read it could just as easily be KK or TPTK vs. 2-pr or a set.

[PinkSteel]

I've misplayed a ton of overpairs recently too. What I'm learning from reading here is along the following lines (full ring play). Would appreciate critique from OP or anyone else.

1. Unless you're talking QQ-AA, play small or dump it. 99 with an 8/5/3 flop, that's an overpair, but you're still extremely weak and vulnerable. You missed your set on the flop; don't hesitate to just dump the hand to any serious action. Future overcards and lots of other things will kill you. Especially if you get raised, you're probably already behind, and if you're not your reverse implied odds are staggering.

2. QQ-AA, position matters hugely. OOP and unimproved, bet the flop hard, but esp. for QQ prepare to gear down or bail quickly after that. That doesn't mean check/fold the turn, just be very careful about getting pot-committed. QQ OOP played for stacks has got to be a long term loser. In position, just play pot control. Keep it small unless you have a strong read.

3. Reads matter hugely, and if you have a read, play it all the way. I suck at reads and multi-table, so my default is to play like all I have is a pair -- conservatively.

4. If you're unlucky enough to be playing multiway, be even more inclined to check the flop and just let it go. Not always, but consider it strongly. Play the pair for set value, and if you miss, be inclined to release (especially OOP, again).

I know this sounds weak/tight and situation matters a great deal, but if you're butchering high pairs left and right like I've been doing, I think these points help you find ways to let go, which is probably what you need to do more often.

[aces_full]

I have no real answer. When I get aces, I have a kung-foo death grip on them and I lose my stack nearly every time they get outflopped unless the flop is very scary. Even on the turn or river I will often pay off the flush or straight draw that just got there. Yet by far (and I have about 100K hands in PT) AA is my winningest hand with an 85% win rate overall and a 75% win rate at showdown. Out of all the hands where I was dealt AA and faced serious action on the flop, my hand was good on the flop 50% of the time when all the money went in.

My feeling is that trying too hard to look for folds when someone plays back at you when you hold an overpair is just second-guessing yourself without a good solid read on your opponent. Like you I find that when you have AA on a board of something like K35 you will more often find that you are getting action from a hand like KQ, or a hand like JJ on an undercard flop. I had a hand last night at $50 NL where I stacked a guy when he min-raised UTG, and I reraised from UTG+1 with AA. He called, and the flop was J9X. He checks, I bet pot, he pushes (He only had about $25 at start of hand anyway), I call. He shows QQ and MHIG. SOme of the time he will have JJ or even something like 99 or J9 here, but at least against low stakes bufoons, I think AA is good here more often than not.

However, my feeling is that this is a totally different situation from flopping TP/TK. With a hand like AA, your opponent often will not put you on a big overpair (or he may have a smaller overpair himself), but with AK on a flop of A83, the guy with A8 KNOWS what you have, and he can't wait to bust you.

Same thing with AA vs KK pre-flop. I have only folded KK pre-flop one time, and it turned out I was wrong-he had QQ, but in all, the times I get stacked on the losing end of KK vs AA are small in comparison to the total number of times I have been dealt KK.