top set on the turn... checkraise or fire?

PokerGoblin · #1 09-21-2005, 03:47 PM

Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($147.53)
UTG ($198.80)
Hero ($360.50)
Button ($183.12)
SB ($306.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, Hero raises to $7, Button calls $7, 2 folds.

Flop: ($17) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $16.15, Button calls $16.15.

Turn: ($49.30) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero?

No real reads on my opponent, he had just sat in a few hands before. I suspect he will bet if I check, and may fold if I bet out.

Thanks

PG

DoomSlice · #2 09-21-2005, 03:49 PM

Checking here would look miiiiighty suspicious.

Simplistic · #3 09-21-2005, 03:51 PM

bet half pot.

Macedon · #4 09-21-2005, 03:53 PM

Fire Away!

Bet $25-$30. Maybe that will look weak to him and he will fire back with a raise. Don't give him a chance at a free card. He's been calling you down so far---which most likely means he has a hand---so there is no reason to suspect he will stop now.

orange · #5 09-21-2005, 04:18 PM

Bet $30.

amoeba · #6 09-21-2005, 04:20 PM

do what you would do with AK in this case.

PokerGoblin · #7 09-21-2005, 05:07 PM

Interesting responses. I am surprised that everyone is so dismissive about slowplaying this.

My thought when the ace hit, is that he will probably only call if the ace helped him, and there's only one left in the deck. If I check, it might look suspicious, but if I make a bet that looks like I want a call I think he will fold.

Checking might look like I didn't like the ace as well.

I did check, and he quickly bet the pot.

Now obviously I hope he has a smaller set and I will surely stack him off if he does. I don't know how likely this is because he didn't raise my flop bet. Smoothcalling the bet doesn't really get me anywhere, because I will have to lead into him on the river for fear of giving him a cheap showdown.

So I set him in after he bet and he quickly folded. I assume he held some kind of medium pocket pair.

Thanks for the input.

PG

Isura · #8 09-22-2005, 10:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]

No real reads on my opponent, he had just sat in a few hands before. I suspect he will bet if I check, and may fold if I bet out.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is hero's read, why is everyone advocating betting out?? I guess OP should try to quantify his use of "suspect". [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Macedon · #9 09-22-2005, 10:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

No real reads on my opponent, he had just sat in a few hands before. I suspect he will bet if I check, and may fold if I bet out.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is hero's read, why is everyone advocating betting out??

[/ QUOTE ]

The button has showed some strength throughout the hand. He is obviously holding something of value.

Since there is a chance---however slight---that the ace either helped him (AK, A8, A5, AX), or doesn't scare him (5-5, 8-8), or better yet...will encourage him to go for a bluff raise (but only when you bet small, showing weakness), then I think the bet is worth the gamble.

A bet here could build a monster pot, whereas a check by the poster could risk a check behind and limit your ability to put down a callable river bet.

If he folds, that's fine. It's a nice pot. But it has the potential to be so much juicier.

aces_full · #10 09-22-2005, 10:57 AM

Maybe I'm being results oriented because of a similar hand I had the other day, but I say bet right out, half the pot and you will have all his money. What hands could he have called with on that flop? My guess is there is a good chance he flopped a set and if you bet the turn he will figure you for AK and raise, then you have his stack.