limp rerasie cleary indicates AA, terrible hand

[theDetroitKid]

Seat 1: pyth ($86.25 in chips)
Seat 2: averyg ($157.25 in chips)
Seat 3: Moleisure ($155.75 in chips)
Seat 4: pooClown [AH,QH] ($187.75 in chips)
Seat 6: keeper42 ($49.50 in chips)
Seat 7: gumba82 ($51.50 in chips)
Seat 8: Luein9008 ($87.50 in chips)
Seat 9: billysun7465 ($48.50 in chips)
Seat 10: 8ballsunk ($72.50 in chips)



ANTES/BLINDS
Luein9008 posts blind ($0.50), billysun7465 posts blind ($1).

PRE-FLOP
8ballsunk folds, pyth folds, averyg calls $1, Moleisure calls $1, pooClown bets $4, keeper42 folds, gumba82 folds, Luein9008 folds, billysun7465 folds, averyg bets $12, Moleisure folds, pooClown calls $9.

FLOP [board cards 8S,QS,AD ]
averyg checks, pooClown bets $19, averyg bets $38, pooClown bets $50, averyg bets $106.25 and is all-in, pooClown calls $75.25.

TURN [board cards 8S,QS,AD,9S ]


RIVER [board cards 8S,QS,AD,9S,KS ]


SHOWDOWN
averyg shows [ AC,AS ]
pooClown shows [ AH,QH ]
averyg wins $314.


AA ran throught my mind as a likely holding. I was not familar with the player and the only other hand i could figure him for was AsKs. does anybody know bayes theorem well enough to determine what % of the time he has AA vs AKspades and if i should ever call?

[Huckle]

The limp-raise preflop would make me think a high pocket pair, JJ-AA or maybe AKs.

With a checkraise on the flop I'd probably just put him on QQ or AA and get out of there. Someone holding AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] might go for the checkraise, anything else and he'd probably come out betting. Unless you had a good read on him as being a maniac who could have two low spades on that flop, I really can't see another raise over those $38.

Even if you just would've called the $38, the spade on the turn would just give you more reasons to fold.