What's the right play here?

[rocflight]

Here's the hand from UB. I'm wondering if I should have tangled with the leader at the table who just moved ahead of me by winning a race against all-in short stack.

beans1 is at seat 1 with 2315.
rocflight is at seat 2 with 3625.
GRob is at seat 3 with 4475.
chefron49 is at seat 4 with 1075.
corval is at seat 5 with 0 (sitting out).
maneuver is at seat 6 with 2750.
groovygolf is at seat 7 with 2510.
santos77 is at seat 8 with 1380.
vikings1 is at seat 9 with 3220.
The button is at seat 3.

chefron49 posts the small blind of 75.
maneuver posts the big blind of 150.

beans1: -- --
rocflight: 7h Ah
GRob: -- --
chefron49: -- --
maneuver: -- --
groovygolf: -- --
santos77: -- --
vikings1: -- --

Pre-flop:

groovygolf folds. santos77 folds. vikings1 folds.
beans1 calls. rocflight raises to 450.
GRob calls. chefron49 folds. maneuver folds. beans1 folds.

Flop (board: 5c 7c Ts):

rocflight bets 450. GRob raises to 900.
rocflight calls.

Turn (board: 5c 7c Ts Kd):

rocflight checks. GRob bets 3075. rocflight folds.
GRob is returned 3075 (uncalled).

He claimed that he had big slick. Should I have bet more on the flop? How could have played this better?

[KingMedicine]

i like it. if card lower than 7 comes on turn, id be willing to call a moderate bet and then call down on the river if no K.

When K hits turn, you're done. You folded when you should have and played it right by my ideas.

[Kaz The Original]

That's the most ludicrous advice I've ever heard. You put him on a king specifically?

[Sam T.]

If you're going to steal with cheese, I'd make it t600 to go, thanks to the limper.

I'd say that you have to bet at least 1/2 the pot here, probably as much as 2/3. Let him know you're serious about the hand. He smelled weakness, and decided to put you to the test. A larger bet might have discouraged this.

Once you merely call his raise (not that re-raising is a great idea), you've lost control of the hand. I might have bet the king, but by then you're talking about committing a good percentage of your stack with a pretty mediocre hand.

This is a steal gone wrong...good fold. Move-on.

[rocflight]

Sam, I think what you said is about right. But what do you make of the min-raise on the flop and all-in on the turn? From my read, this guy didn't appear to be a tricky player. Do you actually put him on AKc?

[Sam T.]

I think the min-raise on the flop was a probing bet. Were you making a small bet with AA to price him in? Or because you whiffed? I imagine that if you push here, he's going to fold a lot of hands. (Is pushing here too laggy? You are probably ahead.)

When you checked the turn, this is probably an auto-bet on his part, whether he has AK or not. He know's you're weak, and wants the pot.

AK would make sense here. He wants to see a flop before he commits any more chips, so he smooth-calls the pre-flop bet. (Some would raise, but it's not the worst play in the world.) The flop is ragged, but your weak bet tells him he is still ahead. (He's not, but that's beside the point.) So he raises to put you on your heels, and it worked. At that point, he probably put you on a flush draw (small bet on the flop, no re-raise on his raise, check on the turn), and he does not want to hang around to see the river.

[KingMedicine]

[ QUOTE ]
That's the most ludicrous advice I've ever heard. You put him on a king specifically?

[/ QUOTE ]

do i put him on a K specifically? i put him on AK specifically or i at least put him on better than middle pair top kicker. his min-raise on the flop is probing or hoping for a re-raise all-in (a la a slow-played AA or a flopped set). best case scenario is that it's a probing raise, in which case i put him on AK or KQs...maybe MAYBE an AQ, but i think this is too rare to count on and to continue the betting with middle pair.

So you ask if i put him on an K specifically? Yes.

What, might I ask, do you put him on?


btw, i will say that a bigger preflop raise or a limp or a fold mightve been better than the OP's original action, but post-flop i think his line was right on.

[jslag]

Don't try and put your opponent on a single hand, put him on a range of possible holdings, then make a decision.

That said, he certainly could hold A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I would actually consider folding to his min-raise on the flop.

He's saying that he at least has a pair of tens, can beat a pair of tens, or he's raising a very strong draw. The only cards that can come on the turn that will make you feel more comfortable are another 7 or an A. And the Ac won't look that good as it completes a flush.

Since you're not going to lead the turn unless it's a very favorable card (again, there aren't many), then you should expect to have to call a large turn bet by him regardless. If he min-raised on the flop, he's likely to bet the turn if you check.

I don't like merely calling the flop raise in hopes that he'll check behind on the turn. Even if he bets 1/2 the pot on the turn it's going to cost you nearly 1/2 your remaining stack.

I like your preflop raise. That's good aggression with position. But realize that if someone cold calls your raise behind you, they have to have a pretty strong hand. Especially since it's later in the tourney.

A solid player probably isn't cold calling your preflop raise with anything less than a pocket pair, AK, or AQ. Given that range, you're almost always beaten on that flop when min-raised, IMO.

[rocflight]

I think folding to the min raise is too weak.

Assume that he is holding AK, which appears to be most likely (I don't think he had A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] because his turn all-in looks like he put me on a draw and he himself did not have the nut flush draw). The turn would scare me only if it were a club or K, Q, J, a total of 18 cards. Given that the other 27 cards would "help" me, I think I'll do okay calling the min raise.

If this guy is holding AT, I think his reraise would have been much bigger to drive me off the pot. If he had an overpair like AA, KK, QQ, or JJ, I think there would most likely be a preflop reraise or a bigger flop reraise.

The only other possibility would have been a set. The way that the guy played on the flop probably rules out top set, and my holding a 7 almost eliminates a middle set. Bottom set probably plays more like TPTK given a 2 suit flop, i.e. it needs some protection.

Maybe I'm over analyzing this.