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  #11  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:43 AM
imported_smoove imported_smoove is offline
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Default Re: I felt dirty...yet good

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But seriously, this is almost always a big hand.

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No way. Not from someone with a VPIP of 50.

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Harv may have a point though, his PFR is only 2. Although it is a teeny sample.

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I had no specific reads on that guy, but I have to admit I was with Harv...I was leaning towards AA/KK--and that makes it a really dumb flop call. But a little part of me said, "small sample...you never know what these LRRs mean."

Turns out the guy had AKh...ouch for him.
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  #12  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:43 AM
toss toss is offline
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Default Re: I felt dirty...yet good

Maybe if we pooled our databases and see who LRRs what.
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  #13  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:49 AM
Jake (The Snake) Jake (The Snake) is offline
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Default Re: I felt dirty...yet good

My findings.

I wish I had written down positions too, but the sample size would have been quite small for that.
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  #14  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:49 AM
Harv72b Harv72b is offline
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Default Re: I felt dirty...yet good

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But seriously, this is almost always a big hand.

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No way. Not from someone with a VPIP of 50.

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A loose/passive is even more likely to attempt a LRR here with a big hand. Why? Because he sucks at poker.

Seriously, though, it could be BS (last night I had a guy who I'd seen PFR once in 50+ hands open from UTG with 36s against me, and ruin my day when he turned a straight vs. my TPTK), but in my experience almost every single time, especially vs. loose, bad players, it's legit. He saw the LRR on tv once and thought it looked cool, so now he does it every time he's got aces.

If we had a stronger hand than AJs with a BDFD I could see continuing, but as it is I just don't see the point when we're so rarely going to improve enough to beat a big hand, and even more rarely going to runner-runner our way into a hand we feel comfortable raising with (i.e., implied odds).
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  #15  
Old 12-30-2005, 12:56 AM
toss toss is offline
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Default Re: I felt dirty...yet good

66% of AA, KK ,AK eh? I think that means we can take a peek at the turn yes? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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  #16  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:07 AM
Jake (The Snake) Jake (The Snake) is offline
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Default Re: I felt dirty...yet good

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If we had a stronger hand than AJs with a BDFD I could see continuing, but as it is I just don't see the point when we're so rarely going to improve enough to beat a big hand, and even more rarely going to runner-runner our way into a hand we feel comfortable raising with (i.e., implied odds).

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Yeah, I think the implied/reverse implied is a really good point and makes it much closer to a fold.

Without a BDFD, I would be folding this flop for sure. With it I think it's close. One reason that pushes this to a call for me is Nate's idea that the bettor might give up and stop betting, allowing us to get to showdown and win more often, maybe even unimproved. I admit though that somebody with those stats isn't giving up often.
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