Two Plus Two Older Archives \$10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?
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#1
12-29-2005, 03:21 PM
 pkrPlayerBr Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 47
\$10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

This is the first hand of a \$10 multitable tourney with over 800 players.

I am in the CO seat. MP+1 pushes all-in 1000. I have no reads and have KK. I called and he showed AA. I couldn't spike anything and I was out.

I think the better line here is to fold. I was trying to determine if the play is +EV, but I don't know how to do the math, and I would like someone's help.

Let's say that 10% of the times he has AA, 30% AKs, 20% AXs and 40% PP below KK.

The blinds are 10/15 and he pushed 1000.

Can anyone tell me if the call is mathematically correct based on my assumptions, and explain to me how to make the calculations?

#2
12-29-2005, 03:31 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: \$10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

Folding KK before the flop is acceptable only when you are on the bubble of a satellite and virtually guaranteed a seat by folding. On the first hand of a \$10 tournament, I am calling and expecting to see all kinds of garbage besides AA.

I can tell you off the top of my head that you are ahead of the range you gave for Villain, but the way to do the calculation is to use pokerstove or a similar calculator to determine your equity against each of these hands, then multiply each result by the percent of the time you expect Villain to have each of these hands. Sum the totals, and you'll have the EV of the call.
#3
12-29-2005, 03:31 PM
 Pondy Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 79
Re: \$10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

Correct call, u ran into AA.

next tourney...
#4
12-29-2005, 03:33 PM
 pkrPlayerBr Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 47
Re: \$10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

Thank you.
#5
12-29-2005, 03:34 PM
 Art Vandelay Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 121
Re: \$10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

If you had folded KK in this spot it would have been criminal. Tough break, move on.

The real donk in this hand is the villian, he makes this move and only KK and QQ will probably call him. The vast majority of the time he picks up the blinds for a whopping win of T15 for his AA. Idiot.
#6
12-29-2005, 03:39 PM
 PFrese Junior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 25
Re: \$10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

[ QUOTE ]
If you had folded KK in this spot it would have been criminal. Tough break, move on.

The real donk in this hand is the villian, he makes this move and only KK and QQ will probably call him. The vast majority of the time he picks up the blinds for a whopping win of T15 for his AA. Idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]
#7
12-29-2005, 03:41 PM
 Rooger Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 75
Re: \$10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

KK against:
AA - win 18.1%
AKs - win 65.9%
Axs - win 67.6%
QQ-22 - win 81.1%

You'll expect to win:
AA: (-1000 * 0.819) + (1000 * 0.181) = -638
AKs: (-1000 * 0.341) + (1000 * 0.659) = 318
Axs: (-1000 * 0.324) + (1000 * 0.676) = 352
QQ-22: (-1000 * 0.189) + (1000 * 0.811) = 622

With the percentages you gave, a call would give you an average of:

0.1 * -638 + 0.3 * 318 + 0.2 * 352 + 0.4 * 622 = 350.8 chips
#8
12-29-2005, 03:43 PM
 illegit Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 217
Re: \$10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

You really shouldn't need math to figure this one out, especially given the ranges you gave. Give him AA 80% of the time then maybe it might be worth looking at, but since you can never do that anyway it wouldn't be particularly relevant.

((0.8 * -1000) + (0.2 * +1025)) * 0.1 = -59.5
((0.66 * +1025) + (0.33 * -1000)) * 0.3 = +103.95
((0.67 * +1025) + (0.33 * -1000)) * 0.2 = +71.35
((0.8 * +1025) + (0.2 * -1000)) * 0.4 = +248

103.95 + 71.35 + 248 - 59.5 = +363.8

That is huge +cEV.

EDIT: Yeah, roger checked me. I used some rough numbers so his is probably more precise.
#9
12-29-2005, 03:46 PM
 DVaut1 Junior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 27
Re: \$10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

[ QUOTE ]
If you had folded KK in this spot it would have been criminal. Tough break, move on.

The real donk in this hand is the villian, he makes this move and only KK and QQ will probably call him. The vast majority of the time he picks up the blinds for a whopping win of T15 for his AA. Idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that I disagree about the Villain's donk play, but it's a \$10 Party MTT -- you're getting called by alot more than KK and QQ. As Focault rightly points out, I'm actually surprised when Villain has AA there. I'd expect all kinds of garbage from the Villain, and I assume most players would put Villain on a wide range as well.

I wouldn't be surpised to see someone call Villain's all-in push on the first hand with 99+, AQ+ and possibly much worse.

There's a reason why a the low-limit MTT mantra is 'value bet, value bet, value bet'; there's no shortage of people in the early stages of a Party MTT unable to laydown a pocket pair/AQ/JTs preflop -- in other words, Villain's push with AA isn't THAT bad, IMO, because he's going to get called with just as much garbage as we expect the villain to be pushing with.

Or, in other words, there's little to no gap concept present in the early levels of a low-limit MTT.
#10
12-29-2005, 03:57 PM
 davidross Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Burlington, Ontario, Canada Posts: 1,021
Re: \$10 MTT Party Poker 1st Hand - Right Call?

"The real donk in this hand is the villian, he makes this move and only KK and QQ will probably call him. The vast majority of the time he picks up the blinds for a whopping win of T15 for his AA. Idiot."

THere is another side to this. Playing \$100 Empire MTT's, I pushed 8 times with AA during level 1 and got called 7 times. For some reason people want to teach the "idiot" a lesson, and my aces held up all 7 times too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].
Granted I never did it first in, but it has clearly been a +EV play for me.

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