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Old 12-27-2005, 05:11 PM
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Default Re: 5/10: Weird hand I iso raise QT hit an iffy river

Preflop is obvious. Raising >> folding >> limping, unless the blinds are crazy. A good case for folding only exists (imo) if CO is indeed very tight calling station (ie he's beating you now and goes to showdown very often), along with loose blinds.


Flop check-behind is standard, theres no way you're ahead of them and the odds of you forcing them both out are slim.

Turn is standard with the 4flush. I have trouble putting CO on a hand here. I guess JJ is possible, but it would seem really strange for CO to play it this way. I think he would've capped QQ-AA if it came back to him. Most likely here I would imagine is a relatively weak ace (A6-AJ) that he didn't bet on the flop. However, pocket pairs below T (55-99) are also very possible, which most have sets now unfortunately. You beat 88-99, random air bluff, missed spade draw (Ksx), other missed draw (straight?). I'm not sure how often he has these, or how often he bets with them on the river.

I think the river here is very close. I would call and expect to be good at least 1/8 times, but not much more than that. I don't think folding is bad either.
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  #12  
Old 12-27-2005, 07:22 PM
TomBrooks TomBrooks is offline
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Default Re: 5/10: Weird hand I iso raise QT hit an iffy river

[ QUOTE ]
The generally accepted [starting hand chart] one around here is MEbenhoe's: it avocates a limp

[/ QUOTE ]
== Hmm, I was using mantasms from MEbenoues thread and I thought it was the same. I'm going to look at that closer.
[ QUOTE ]
...but that's beside the point. I raised because the blinds were tight and an unknown (basically) open limped in the CO. This is going to be HU a lot, and CO is going to have a worse hand a lot. Plus I'll have position on him. I really wouldn't even consider folding here unless I've seem CO limp in this spot with Ax or KT or something.

[/ QUOTE ]
== OK. I see.

[ QUOTE ]
FLOP<u>Use Your Position</u> you can often win the hand right here. You probably have the best hand anyway or are second best only to a King which will be hard pressed to call a bet from you.

[/ QUOTE ]That is wrong. If a TAGish player 3-bets me, I almost always have the worst hand with QT. There are really only 3 reasons he would check here. -He has a mid-high PP and has decided I'm the type to bluff at it all the way to the river with nothing or he wants to CR and force CO out -He has a monster like AA or AK and is afraid of scaring me out. -He's a post flop pussy and he's checking KQ, KJ, QJs. The first too are far more likely then the third, IMO.

== I see. I think I overlooked the significance of SB's 3Bet.

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Get Better Hands to Fold</u> such as any five, six, 77, 88, 99.

[/ QUOTE ] He's not folding 77-99 very often and he's not 3-betting any hands with a 5 or a 6 and if he was they'd be 66,55,A6,A5.

= OK. Right

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Don't Give a Free Card</u>

[/ QUOTE ]But I want a free card. My hand sucks but I have a couple of BD draws.

= Considering above, taking free card makes sense to me now.

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Clean up Your Outs</u>
The King [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] might correctly (edit: if you had an ace here) fold here, cleaning up your 8 Backdoor Flush outs.

[/ QUOTE ] The parlay there is very small.

[ QUOTE ]
Any KQ or QJ might correctly (edit: if you had an ace) fold here, cleaning up up to six of your Q and T outs.

[/ QUOTE ]Sure, but he has other things far more then those.

= OK

[ QUOTE ]
<u>Set Yourself Up to Take it Down on the Turn</u> If betting doesn't win the pot for you on the flop, it may set you up to take it down on the turn. The [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] that came sets you up to make a semi-bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]Betting the turn after betting the flop and getting called is very spewy and a money loser. He's folding to the turn bet even less then the flop bet. If he called the flop, he's seeing SD, IMO.

== Often people will peel on the flop but fold on the turn bet, but I guess your saying on this board many hands might have hit or improved their draw or a PP bigger than 77 would look even better now. OK.
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