NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29

NoChance · #1 11-29-2005, 12:37 AM

Thanks LLXC for the PM giving me a heads up about this game. I had not even started looking for this yet as it's early in the season. Indeed, we have our first play this year.

(12) Illinois
North Carolina -2

Take North Carolina if you follow this trend.

MCS · #2 11-29-2005, 04:55 AM

Ha! I've been telling people North Carolina isn't as crappy as they seem to think. Vegas agrees with me.

(or maybe they really hate Illinois, which I think is actually more likely, but I like my first hypothesis better [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

Indiana · #3 11-29-2005, 10:52 AM

I dont get this bet man. UNC lost 6 of their strong players from last year while Illinois keeps all the top players. Shouldn't this be an easy bet on Illinois? I checked Sagarin and it puts them at even, so with the game being played in Carolina -2 or -3 would make logical sense. However, one must look past the early Sagarin "data" in this game dont you think?

Indy

the34eagle · #4 11-29-2005, 12:18 PM

whoa whoa whoa. illinois did NOT keep all its top players. No offense, but if you think they did then sports betting clearly isnt for you. They lost their best player in deron williams to the NBA as well as luther head. Not to mention they lost roger powel. All they have left this year is Dee Brown and James Augustine. Im a big Illinois fan and I'm not sure if I'm going to touch this game tonight. We will see tho

Indiana · #5 11-29-2005, 01:50 PM

Yah I agree that they lost some, but I thought Carolina lost everybody. I do think that I'm a poor sports bettor to be honest. I was on the run of my life until that week the Eagles lost to the Cowboys (was that week 5 or 6??). I lost pretty much the whole roll that week. I have rebuilt though and I'm on another run after killing that Colts game last night, as well as the turkey games. I wonder if I too should stay away from the bball game tonight. Does anybody see any value in this game?

Indy

NoChance · #6 11-29-2005, 01:58 PM

I put my bet in last night. I play every one of these games that fits the trend. Many look ugly. That's good.

Here is more info on the game.

It looks like the line went down to -1.5 but now is back up to -2 at most places.

kyro · #7 11-29-2005, 02:13 PM

It's a trend. It doesn't have to make sense.

#8 11-29-2005, 02:55 PM

I'm posting this about 10 hours too early but I figured, what the heck? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I followed and played the unranked favored vs ranked teams system last year but for tonight, I'm going with Illinois. This North Carolina team is just too unstable and inconsistent to be the favorite right now, in my opinion. I like the more experienced Illinois team to win. Yes, they lost Head, Powell and Williams, but they still have seniors Brown and Augustine to lead the way. NC meanwhile lost its top 7 scorers from last year and is playing mostly freshman and sophs. When it comes down to it, I'd rather have my money backing Brown to go off for a big game rather than the freshman assigned to guard him. And getting points is a bonus.

scott8 · #9 11-29-2005, 03:09 PM

You could make this case every time the fav is the underdog.

The earth is not flat people.

#10 11-29-2005, 04:07 PM

A system is only as good as the last year in which it worked. I know this system was good last year but I don't have any data for previous years. Does anyone have this info? Remember, a system or trend is often nothing more than a series of coincidences. I wouldn't blindly play a system without at least trying to analyze each particular matchup. A game may be favorable under one particular (historically successful) angle, but unfavorable under another (historically successful) angle. Isn't it at least possible that NC is favored because teams that win the national title one year tend to be overvalued in the following season?