TPTK picks up Nut FD on turn - 2/4 6max

vanHelsing · #1 11-23-2005, 06:26 PM

2nd orbit with villain - no reads.
From datamining I have 40ish hands where he is 50/0/1

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Button ($371)
SB ($332.82)
BB ($385)
UTG ($247.65)
Hero ($374)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $4, Hero raises to $20, 2 folds, BB calls $16, UTG folds.

Flop: ($46) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $40, BB raises to $80, Hero calls $40.

Turn: ($206) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $50, Hero calls $274 (All-In)

Like it? Hate it?

#2 11-23-2005, 06:32 PM

I don't think I like it, and here's why. Anything that calls your all-in likely has you beat, and will reduce your outs. Those hands are likely to be AA, KK, or any other set. If he has any of those hands, your A outs are no longer good. Your K outs will also be dead unless vilain has AA. Thus, if villain calls, you only have a flush draw and MAYBE 2 more outs.

If villain doesn't have one of those hands, he will likely fold. In which case, your AK would have been good anyways, and you could have gotten more value.

The fact that villain min-raise and then bet relatively small worries me.

vanHelsing · #3 11-23-2005, 06:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Those hands are likely to be AA, KK, or any other set.

[/ QUOTE ]
My thought was, why would a set bet this board so timid?

#4 11-23-2005, 06:40 PM

I wasn't saying I think he has a set, I was more saying only those hands will call, which leaves you in a bad spot.

If you didn't think he had a set, then even more I don't think you should've pushed...what would he call with?

jhall23 · #5 11-23-2005, 06:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Those hands are likely to be AA, KK, or any other set.

[/ QUOTE ]
My thought was, why would a set bet this board so timid?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because some people stink at poker.

Anway, looks fine to me. This is a donk way of playing a flush draw and if he has a flush draw the turn push is good cause he might call as a dog and the pot is big and fine to take down right away. 40 hands isn't a lot, but if he is somewhat passive we probably can't lure him into bluffing a missed river.

Calling can't be bad either of course since he is giving you such great odds on the draw you picked up.

troymclur · #6 11-23-2005, 07:21 PM

This is kinda what i was thinking. It looks like a donkey playing his club draw really hard, which if true, would make this a good line.

soah · #7 11-23-2005, 07:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that villain min-raise and then bet relatively small worries me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's more likely that he is genuinely weak.