Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?

[AllIn3High]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

UTG+1 ($84.9)
Hero ($218.87)
MP2 ($41.61)
MP3 ($101.65)
CO ($111.35)
Button ($27.8)
SB ($333.4)
BB ($163.48)
UTG ($22.62)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB bets $4, Hero raises $12, SB goes all-in, BB folds.

Hero has to call $205.

SB is 30/10/2.15-ish after 100hands.

I'm thinking a big draw or maybe a donk play w/ top-two?

This is the biggest moneywise decision I've had to make playing hold'em until now.. my question:

[krazyace5]

Any notes on the player?

[AllIn3High]

[ QUOTE ]
Any notes on the player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunatly not. I was 3 tabling so no special reads, but I usually notice it when people do exceptional stuff.

[AllIn3High]

Ofcourse all input / arguments for both call/fold is appreciated.

[xorbie]

I think he is far more likely to do this with 68[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], AJ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] etc than 77 or 99. The problem is that againgst the first two you aren't a huge favorite, and even against the third you are going to lose over 1/5 of the time (I think). Whereas set over set you lose just about always, so he has to have a big draw or a bad draw a large majority of the time. I would be tempted to call here though.

[boondockst]

Maybe it's an "oh S**T" by the SB after not raising KK/AA and seeing action on the flop

[theblitz]

Look at it fom his point of view.

He is coming in after a pot sized bet and a pot sized raise. Hard to think he would be betting a draw or a lowish hand here.

[AllIn3High]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it's an "oh S**T" by the SB after not raising KK/AA and seeing action on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but maybe it's a set.. would you bet $200 on it? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[mason55]

Assuming he's reasonable, he's not doing this with any one pair hand. Since we dont' know what level he's at we don't know if he could make this play with a big draw or a huge draw. There's really no 2pair possibilities on the board (97 maybe since it's SB). Against the OESFDs you're a 58/42 favorite. Against overcard heart draws you're a 75/25 favorite. Against another set you're a 91/9 dog.

This is one of those hands you really need a read on to know how possible it is for villain to do this without a set. Even PT numbers would help. There needs to be a very strong possibility he could do this with a draw or some weak 2pr/top pair hand (&gt;50% of the time) for calling to be correct since you're getting paid 1:1 basically.

Having never played 100NL I don't know if a typical player makes this play with less than a set more than 50% of the time, I'll leave that up to you.

[AllIn3High]

[ QUOTE ]

This is one of those hands you really need a read on to know how possible it is for villain to do this without a set. Even PT numbers would help. There needs to be a very strong possibility he could do this with a draw or some weak 2pr/top pair hand (&gt;50% of the time) for calling to be correct since you're getting paid 1:1 basically.


[/ QUOTE ]

"SB is 30/10/2.15-ish after 100hands."

But in these situations reads usually says more than stats... unfortunatly I didn't have any.

Sounds like you're leaning towards a fold?

(nice analysis btw)