Facing a river all-in with low FH. NL100 - 6max

vanHelsing · #1 06-01-2005, 03:30 PM

What I have of villain is mainly from data mining.
He is PF 60/22, AFs are 1/1/5. He went 37% to SD.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

CO ($133.25)
Button ($76)
SB ($298.38)
BB ($98)
Hero ($130.1)
MP ($206.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
Hero calls $1, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets $3, BB folds, Hero raises to $9, MP folds, Button folds, SB calls $6.

Turn: ($23) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12.
 How was the turn bet? 

River: ($47) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB calls $276.38 (All-In), Hero [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

amoeba · #2 06-01-2005, 03:51 PM

I call putting him on flush. guy that has 22% pfr won't limp with AA/KK. I check through the turn as I don't want to be checkraised a big amount and the check through somewhat disguises my hand should I fill up and might induce an A to blocking bet the river should it blank. I fully expect to call up to 2/3 pot on the river on a nonheart.

if he has 77, oh well.

actually I didn't think about K7, A7, 72. hmm, makes this tougher. I think A7 is the hand you are most worried about.

Zag · #3 06-01-2005, 03:56 PM

Unless you've seen him make "the move of honor" before, more often than could possibly be accounted for by him holding the nuts, then lay it down. You've put $22 in so far, so you have $108 left to risk. I think he will show you the stone cold nuts here more often than a missed draw or some other crapola. It is a little suspicious that he didn't check-raise on the turn, with any hand (even A7) that beats you, but I certainly have seen the mysterious call, then bet, with a big hand.

Very possibly he flopped a set with his big pair and decided to slowplay it. On the turn, he got afraid of the flush, then was afraid no longer on the river. I guess he could even have A7 and feared the flush on the turn. Since you have the absolutely tiniest full house possible on the board, there are too many hands that beat you. Fold it. It hurts, and you might be wrong, but fold it.

Your turn bet was fine. Bigger would have been fine, too -- yours was the lower limit of acceptible. Any lower, and you are just setting yourself up for a check-raise from a bigger set, without actually earning much at all from a draw.

xorbie · #4 06-01-2005, 03:58 PM

The problem is that he is in the SB, so A7 is certainly possible. You can probably rule KK/AA out considering his PF.

The problem is that given his PF numbers, he might also just be a donk with the nut flush who thinks he is good.

TheWorstPlayer · #5 06-01-2005, 04:01 PM

Turn bet sucks.

Matt R. · #6 06-01-2005, 04:02 PM

Yikes. That, unfortunately, is the most useful thing I have to say about this hand. I actually don't use those stats you listed, so I don't know what they mean. They could easily change what I would do on the river here I think. That being said, I think I would grit my teeth and call here. My GUESS is that he has the heart flush (there's no way he could read you definitively for a FH). The only other possibility I see is that he has A7. Do those stats indicate at all that he would overbet the river so much with 7's full? I also would bet a little more on the turn here (more like $15) with bottom set, but that's getting nit-picky. It's SUPER close, but I think I'd call.

Addition -- I don't feel like re-writing the above, so I just wanted to add that A7 makes as much sense to me as a heart flush after thinking about it a bit more. The huge overbet makes me more inclined to call with my fullhouse though because I wouldn't expect a $200 overbet with such a strong hand. On the other hand... he's tripled his buy-in and this type of move might be a good way to do it by making others think you're bluffing on the river. Do you have the results? I'm really curious because I find myself in similar situations sometimes.

Shoog · #7 06-01-2005, 04:05 PM

It makes perfect sense that he could be holding A7!
1. It was an unraised PF.
2. He was SB
3. He called on turn after third heart fell, which could have made a flush that topped his 2P.
4. He fills on the end with 7 and pushes.

The key, IMHO, to letting go of this hand earlier or at least backing off a bit earlier is that the pot was unraised b4 the flop. You really can't say he wouldn't hold A7 or even K7 or 72 for that matter given that he only had to put in half a bet to see the firts three cards. After that, many of these hole card combos make sense of his betting.
chrs

amoeba · #8 06-01-2005, 04:05 PM

the problem is that your half pot turn bet makes it seem like you have the flush and want to get value out of it.

MarkL444 · #9 06-01-2005, 04:05 PM

perhaps had you made a better turn bet your river decision would be easier?

snappo · #10 06-01-2005, 04:08 PM

I'd call. You can rule out AA and KK cause of no preflop raise from a 60/22 player. More likely he has a flush or trips than a bigger boat. I wouldn't be too surprised if he turns over A7 here but I think you should call. I'd put him on Axs for the flush.