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Old 12-24-2005, 03:22 AM
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Default Re: Does a Better Player Play This Differently?

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By the way if you did raise the turn and the UTG calls, I would check the river unimproved, which means usually you will be investing 2BB no matter how you play this hand, but I would rather make the whole investme

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You are going to get a crying river call from QQ-TT way more often than you are saving yourself a bet the times he stopped pushing his AA.

Also, raising the turn wont protect you against a 5 outter, because he cant have a 5 outter here. Youve got his outs tainted by your flush draw (hed have the odds to call with a 5 outter anyway tho even if you did raise). Same with a gutshot, he doesnt have 4 outs to that, hes got 3.

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It is still possible for the SB to have a 5 outer on this board even with the hero's flush draw. An example would be if the SB hand Ah6c. It is also possible for the SB to have a 3 or 4 outer here also. If the hero just calls the turn the SB will be getting approx 14.5-1 to call, which means if the SB has a 3-5 outer he will be getting the proper odds to outdraw the hero. If the Hero raises the turn the SB will be getting 7.75-1 to call, meaning if the small blind has a 3 or 4 outer he cannot call profitably, and although he may have the implied odds to call if he has 5 outs, he may still incorrectly fold this draw. Becuz there's a chance the hero has the best hand, and this pot is huge, I dont think the hero can afford to let the small blind draw profitably if he has a 3 or 4 outer, nor can he afford to not try to pressure the SB to fold those rare times he has a 5 outer. If the hero is going to call down anyways, which I believe he should, he is much better off raising the turn and protecting his hand in this large pot. If he doesnt improve he can always check the river. If given the choice between calling down and raising the turn and checking the river unimproved, I believe the hero will be better off in the long run by making that 2bb investment right away on the turn. When the pot gets this big, and you have something like a vulnerable top pair type hand, protecting your hand is more important than any saving bets strategy IMO.

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so there is 2 hand combinations that have 5 outs (that make sense) its not even worth thinking about here when it comes to making a decision. Given that 3 outs is barely positve, I dont think arguing a raise for the sake of hand protection is worthwhile. I think arguing it in terms of value would be better. Charge sb to draw to his 6 outter or whatever, and get value out of UTGs QQ or whatever. I really hopew someone who is good at math drops by in this post, cuz I think the turn is basically just a math problem.

Also, again, taking the freeshowdown here is weak. If UTG doesnt fire back on the turn if you raise, you need to be betting this river if it blanks, not checking it behind. There is value in a bet.

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My discussion has been about comparing two strategies. Raising the turn and checking the river versus, calling down. I am just trying to point out why I think raising the turn and checking the river is better than calling down. Whether you believe the hero should fire another bet is fine, but that part is irrelevant to my discussion. Whether the hero should bet the river after he raises the turn is a whole other topic to me.

About you saying that any possible 5 outer is not worth thinking about, when the pot gets this large, every possible draw to beat the hero's hand should be considered. And I will say this one final time, If the hero just calls the turn, the SB will have an easy profitable call if he has 3-5 outs. If the hero raises the turn, the SB now can not call profitably if he has a 3 or 4 outer, and if the SB has a 5 outer he may still fold incorrectly. For these reasons alone, the hero should raise the turn. Whether this should be looked at as a protection raise or a value raise is not relevant to the point I am making. Raising the turn and checking the river, is better than calling down IMO for the reasons Ive stated 3 times now. As far as which line is better between raising the turn and checking the river or raising the turn and betting the river....I let someone else tackle that one.
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