NCAABB Unranked vs Ranked 11/29

[LLXC]

Last year we lost the first game but won the next 7. Hopefully that's the case this year.

[MyTurn2Raise]

I'm looking forward to following this trend...I too bet on the Illini tonight, but it was because freshman pioint guard for UNC against the Illini D seemed like a tough offensive night.

I'm all for blindly following systems and trends--see my NHL log--but this game had unique situations which put it off (the large following for the non-ranked UNC and freshman point guard)

My comments on officiating are not nice....I always go with the It's Chinatown mentality. Unless you're the 'name' team, you're screwed. This runs across nearly every sport in every conference and I do actually add this effect into my handicapping.

[Indiana]

Like I said, I take Illinois. I was very shocked to wake up yesterday morning and see that UNC was the favorite in this game after losing their entire championship lineup. This was truly a golden sports betting opportunity.

Enjoy that $,

Indy

[Easy E]

I'm glad I waited to see how this worked out. I'll check out the next recommendation.

This is a good example of the debate between following systems and using handicapping to make decisions. They both have merits and flaws.

Does Kansas apply tonight? I know Nevada is ranked in one poll and unranked in the other.

[namknils]

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Does Kansas apply tonight? I know Nevada is ranked in one poll and unranked in the other.

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I think I may have been misunderstanding this trend. Could someone please clarify for me?

A. When an unranked team is favored to beat a ranked team, always take the unranked team.

B. When an unranked team is playing a ranked team, always take the unranked team regardless of the line.

Are either of these two right? Does it have to do with the unranked team being at home at all?

[NoChance]

I knew this would come up today. This trend is used by many people and some use either poll. I do not. I am a bit more strict with it.

My reasoning is that people must SEE the ranking next to the team. Most television and newspapers use the USA Today poll as their main poll for listing the rankings next to the teams when promoting the game. I think this is important because only the people who are digging a little deeper will see that Nevada is ranked in the AP poll and those people are slightly more in the know. Your average Joe Public "may" never notice and you "may" not get the added value.

There are many different spins to this trend. For example, I use the opening line to determine if it's a play. Others don't care what the opening line is and play it if the unranked teams was favored at any time. Another example, I don't play them if the line opens at a pick. Others do. I wont count it as a play with the criteria I use. Others will. For situations like this, I will sometimes bet these for half the amount I put on the normal trend plays but again, I wont count it on my record.

Does that make any sense? I hope it does, along with my reasoning. If you must, play it for half.

[NoChance]

Here is the thread where I explained how it works:

Unranked vs Ranked

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Does Kansas apply tonight? I know Nevada is ranked in one poll and unranked in the other.

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Here we go again. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Nevada is indeed ranked #20 in the AP poll. But once again, the unranked team is the more public team in this matchup. Nevada returns their solid tournament team from last year almost entirely intact. Meanwhile Kansas is playing almost all freshman and sophomores. I haven't made a play yet but would definitely lean towards Nevada. The only concern I would have is that it's @Kansas. Another thing to consider is that last year at pretty much the same point in the season, Nevada went to Kansas as 20 point dogs and got spanked by 33. They may be itching for some revenge.

[jedinite]

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I think I may have been misunderstanding this trend. Could someone please clarify for me?

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To put it simply for those following along, the condition is:

Look for an unranked team playing at home who is favored to win over a ranked team.

What NoChance is saying in his thread, is that the "real" line for this unranked home favorite should be -5 and the heavy public money coming down on the side of their ranked underog opponent drives the line down to -2 or -3 and as such there is value on the opposite side of the line.

Per NoChance's thread, most people believe the exact condition is that the line opens with the unranked home team as a favorite, but some people will play if the line moves to favor the unranked home team even if they started as an underdog or a pick'em.