ROI to ITM Calculation

Hello,

Trying to understand more about sit n' go's. Preemptively, yes, I used the search function and looked through a bunch, but couldn't find anything about this because ROI and ITM returned insane #'s of results.

In the FAQ's post pinned at the top of this forum, there is a table of sustainable ROI's for various stakes of sit n go, and a listed maximum ITM%. The ROI's ranged from 25% for the 5+1's and down to 6% for 200+15's. However, it was stated that the ITM% capped at 4/9ths, regardless of whether you were playing for pennies or thousands of dollars, due to the luck factor involved in poker.

My question is this: if your ITM% is constant accross limits, why does ROI go down?

For a 5+1 player with a 45% ITM%:
profit/tourney = .45(25+15+10/3) - 6 = $1.5 dollar/tourney.

ROI = 7.5$/$6 = 25%.

For a 50+5 player with a 45% ITM%:
profit/tourney = .45(250+150+100/3) - 55=$20 dollar/tourney.

ROI = $75/$55 = 36%.

The ROI actually goes up given a constant ITM, due to the reduced rake. Given a constant rake, the ROI's would be identical.

What am I doing wrong? Understanding that ROI = $payout/$paid for tourneys, and your $payout should be directly proportional to your ITM%, why does ROI go down with increases in stakes instead of up? I must be missing something.

Thanks for replies

[kyro]

I'm not sure why the ITM is capped at 44%. That also goes down as you move up limits. That was probably just a broad generalization on the easiest of games.

[pooh74]

My question is this: if your ITM% is constant accross limits, why does ROI go down?

ITM shouldnt be constant...if the faq referred to a cap, that's all it is, an upward ceiling, but don't imagine it to be constant. Furthermore, place distribution in the top 3 may be less top heavy as you go up in limits, accounting for even more loss in ROI.

ahh, so ITM does go down, makes sense. In that case, what is a solid ITM% for a 30+3 party player?

Also, does anyone have the average time/tournament for a 30+3? I'd imagine somewhere between 30-35 minutes. I'm talking about how long the average player plays in the average tournament.

Thx

[AleoMagus]

the 4/9 figure was suggested once as an upper maximum. This was debated a bit, but is probably at least close to correct

keep in mind though that this is only a maximum theoretical value

In reality people post very large samples which exceed this, and in reality this is impossible at the high high stakes.

At high stakes, many excellent players are barely over 35%, and they are happy about it.

Just convert the suggested ROI maximums back to ITM% in the opposite manner which you have been, and it should give you some idea of reasonable ITM values. In other words, you are doing it right.

Regards
Brad S

[kyro]

30-35 minutes seems a bit high. I think the average tourney lasts about 40 minutes (though I could be wrong).

As for a decent ITM? Well 30% will make you breakeven minus the rake. 35% would be a pretty solid ITM I would think. But remember, you're playing for money...not money finishes, and there is a difference. I can guarantee you that I could increase my long-term ITM stat at the levels I play in, but I choose not to do so, because occasionally I'll sacrifice a 3rd for the chance of first.

[Hornacek]

I've played over 2000 $30+3 SNGs with a 40% ITM and 22% ROI.

[RedBean]

The main determining effect on ROI is the amount of 1sts in relation to 2nd and 3rds. The FAQ list a decreasing expectation of ROI due to the relative decrease in 1sts and subsequent higher levels in relation to 2nds and 3rds.

You can have a breakeven or even losing run with 40% ITM, and someone else can have a gaudy 30% ROI with only 36% ITM.

In other terms, ITM is kinda like batting average, and ROI is kinda like Slugging Percentage.

For example, Ozzie Smith and Barry Bonds may both hit around .300, but it is those 40-50 dingers that Barry puts on the board giving him a gaudy .700 SLG pct, and thus by far increases his value and runs scored for the team, while the Wizard may be batting at the same clip, his lonely two dingers and assortment of bloop singles do little to help the bottom line.

Remember, one 1st is better than two 3rds, and all ITM's are not created equal.....

[kyro]

good job?

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
good job?

[/ QUOTE ]

uh... move up?