Just double checking (TC article)

[Mr. Curious]

TC got exactly what he wanted with two all-ins in front of him with KK and he should have called, right? The point of the action semi-bluff (which I had not heard of till today) is that it you can call with a monster and fold weak hands while getting others to commit too many chips, right?

[lorinda]

I am going to see what others have to say about the math of the Action bluffs and semi bluffs.

After taking the route he did with the kings, he should certainly have called.
The idea of the play is to cause trouble cheaply and then run away. If you are semi-bluffing (For instance a pair of 9s in the original example) you have the added bonus that you can get your read wrong more often, fail to get the action you hoped for, and still have a chance post flop.
When you get it right, the loss of 300 chips is more than compsensated for by the loss of a player, which is what I find fascinating about the scenario.

I do have quite a lot more to say on the topic, but would rather let it run for a while first.

I will add that I have had success with this play from time to time, although obviously the siutations where it comes up are quite rare.

Lori

[Ilovephysics]

Interesting play to say the least. I'm curious if anyone can work out the math quickly to justify the validity of it... I do question whether or not said villians might still push anyway post flop if so eager to push preflop with some prodding (when I've tried this and it works exactly how I've hoped, I'll often think 'Dance, puppets!', but certainly, I'd still often expect a somewhat modest holding by the loose player given the raise and all-in (maybe KQ/AJ-ish?), and a better hand in the caller's hand)...

I wonder how one might compare this to a squeeze play, or if said comparison might help this type of play against better players...

[lorinda]

Some quick numbers using the ICM

TC Folds 83o, One of the other players wins with a bet on the flop.

2400-3100-2300-400-1800

Gives him 24.0% of the prize pool


TC raises, the other two get it all in, the pot is not chopped.

2100-3100-0-400-4400

TC gets 26.6% of the prize pool.


TC raises, the first opponent pushes, sb and TC fold.

2100-3100-2600-400-1800

TC is worth 22.0%


There are many other factors that I have allowed to offset against each other for now. The other players may fight without our help, so we don't need to waste 300 chips. We may hit a huge flop and triple up, etc etc.

Just showing the starting points, but from here, if TC can trust his reads 45-50% of the time, he can make the play. If he has a better hand, then he can make it more often.

Lori

[Jay36489]

So are you trying to get two hands with big cards all in preflop where as otherwise they might both miss the flop and check it down?