Set in unraised $100 NL pot - call $200?

[spoohunter]

Dude, you have three of a kind. Call.

[PokerFink]

Just want to point out that it isn't a one-outer. You just know that board is coming heart-heart if villian has a bigger set. I mean, party is rigged, right?

Seriously though, this has to be a profitable call. For every one time that villian has a bigger set, there are going to be two times he has something really stupid like AA or 97... or worse. And you're ahead of every draw.

Make the call.

[Zag]

Since your starting stack was over 200 BBs, you should fold. If you (or villain) had only 100 BBs, I might consider a call, and at, say, 75 BBs it would be an easy call. However, a losing set should only lose around 100-120 BBs.

These numbers, however, are against an unknown player. If you have ever seen the "Move of Honor" from this player before with less than the nuts, it changes things. But let's assume equal chances of (1) Big set (2) top two (3) a huge draw. I think this is a reasonable assumption and is probably close to the one that the majority of the people who said "call" are making.

You are risking $205 in order to win $235, for a total pot to be split up of $435

A. He has a better set: You are a huge dog with only 8.9% pot equity. http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1015401 The value of the call was therefore 0.089 * $435 = $38.72 (ouch)

B. He has top two: You are a big favorite with 83.2% pot equity. http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1015403
The value of the call was therefore 0.832 * $435 = $361.92

C. He has a huge draw: You are only a small favorite with 57.9% pot equity. http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1015405 The value of the call was therefore 0.579 * $435 = $251.87.

Since we said that these three cases are roughly equal in likelihood, EV calculation is:

(A + B + C)/3 - $205 = $217.5 - $205 = $12.5 EV

Hmmm, I am a little surprised, I thought it would come out negative. Note, however, if we increase the chances of A even a tiny bit, it quickly becomes very negative.

A/2 + B/4 + C/4 - $205 = $-32.19

[meow_meow]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, I am a little surprised, I thought it would come out negative. Note, however, if we increase the chances of A even a tiny bit, it quickly becomes very negative.

A/2 + B/4 + C/4 - $205 = $-32.19

[/ QUOTE ]

On the other hand, if you add some possibility that he has a naked flush draw or an overpair, it becomes more positive.

To your point though, assuming the +12 EV, do you advocate folding because you have 200bb in a 100bb capped game?

[PinkSteel]

Zag, your pricing of various hands is extremely interesting to me. Here you price a set at about 100BB. I remember in another post somewhere you priced TPGK at about 40BB; do I remember correctly? Where do your benchmarks come from? Can you put some color behind them?

The one thought I keep coming back to in this specific case is that villain doesn't have the set. Sure, he may be a maniac, but would a thinking player play middle or top set this way? I absolutely would not. I still might chicken and fold but I think P( VillainSet ) < 1/3.

[unlucky513]

i get my chips in the pot ASAP, for sure!

[Jester999]

[ QUOTE ]
But let's assume equal chances of (1) Big set (2) top two (3) a huge draw. I think this is a reasonable assumption and is probably close to the one that the majority of the people who said "call" are making.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the weighting here is flawed and you're discounting other hands such as top and bottom pair and bottom two. I think the assumptions make the math very flawed.

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, I am a little surprised, I thought it would come out negative. Note, however, if we increase the chances of A even a tiny bit, it quickly becomes very negative.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you've already WAY overestimated the likelyhood of a bigger set, so I really think you're reaching.

Like I've said, at these levels I've seen this move 3 or 4 times that I can think of and the hand either got shown down or the player who moved all in flahsed their cards after the opponent folded. It's been two pair every single time, so maybe my process is somewhat skewed.

And before I get someone telling me that 'set over set' isn't THAT rare. I agree. I had it 3 times yesterday and was on top everytime en route to my biggest single winning day in my poker history online.


And...just for fun...

[ QUOTE ]
Just want to point out that it isn't a one-outer. You just know that board is coming heart-heart if villian has a bigger set. I mean, party is rigged, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
Zag, your pricing of various hands is extremely interesting to me. Here you price a set at about 100BB. I remember in another post somewhere you priced TPGK at about 40BB; do I remember correctly? Where do your benchmarks come from? Can you put some color behind them?

[/ QUOTE ]
They come from a combination of personal experience and extrapolation from what I have learned from better players (mostly here).

Somewhat, they are calculated this way: If I have AK in early position, I will raise preflop. Then, if I hit my TPTK, I will check-raise. If you calculate it out, you will find that this check-raise will put my total investment so far in the 40 BB range. Of course, this depends on the number of callers, whether the bets were pot-size or half-pot, etc. but it gets you into a neighborhood. Note that if you do check-raise the flop and are re-raised, the opponent probably has TPTK beaten, which is why this is the number I choose for that hand.

Of course, these numbers vary greatly according to the opponents, my image, etc. but they represent a good starting point. The big value that they offer to me is that I can put in that raise with confidance, because I know that I will feel OK about losing 100 BBs (or whatever). If I have to think about it, then I am more likely to inspire the opponent to make a play at me.

[ QUOTE ]
The one thought I keep coming back to in this specific case is that villain doesn't have the set. Sure, he may be a maniac, but would a thinking player play middle or top set this way? I absolutely would not. I still might chicken and fold but I think P( VillainSet ) < 1/3.

[/ QUOTE ]
If that is your belief on the assumptions, then you should always call here or quit playing no limit poker. It helps to try to think of any money that you have bought in with as already gone, already invested. If you can't put it all at risk when you are pretty sure you have much the best of it, then you should stick to limit games.

To everyone who disagreed with my assumptions: I agree with you that they are probably flawed, and I think we can all agree that the amount to put on the ratios is a matter of opinion. My point was primarily to figure out the EV, given some assumptions that I thought would make it close but slightly negative -- I was right about close, at least. Also, I wanted to set it up so that people could easily plug in their own assumptions and see the EV. If you assume that the chance of a set is substantially less than 1/3 I don't argue with you, as long as you can make that call when you are at the table.

[PinkSteel]

[ QUOTE ]
If I have AK in early position, I will raise preflop. Then, if I hit my TPTK, I will check-raise. If you calculate it out, you will find that this check-raise will put my total investment so far in the 40 BB range. Of course, this depends on the number of callers, whether the bets were pot-size or half-pot, etc. but it gets you into a neighborhood. Note that if you do check-raise the flop and are re-raised, the opponent probably has TPTK beaten, which is why this is the number I choose for that hand.

Of course, these numbers vary greatly according to the opponents, my image, etc. but they represent a good starting point. The big value that they offer to me is that I can put in that raise with confidance, because I know that I will feel OK about losing 100 BBs (or whatever). If I have to think about it, then I am more likely to inspire the opponent to make a play at me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. This is the kind of framework that, it seems to me, one would have to have before one could feel ready to play deep stack poker -- of which OP put up a good example and with which I have no real experience. I guess one could also have a benchmark as a percentage of stack sizes, rather than multiple of blinds. But either way, like you said, a starting point.

Very helpful way of looking at deep, deep bets. Thanks again.

[ryanghall]

I'd have to call this.

It reeks of a draw and we all know how rare set over set is.
Once in a while it will happen. I had a hand similar to this the other day and the guy had top set. Whatever. Normally, you're good here. Looks like AJh or perhaps a straight flush draw.

Remember, if it is a draw, which really seems likely to me, you also have one of the hearts, lowering their chances slightly. I call.

Ryan