Hand I witnessed - Do you call this river?

[theblitz]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

UTG ($37.15)
MP ($67.65)
CO ($117.02)
Hero ($53.1)
SB ($120.41)
BB ($40.3)

Preflop:Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.

Flop: ($0.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $0.5</font>, BB calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50.

Turn: ($2.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $4</font>, BB folds, CO folds, Button calls $4.

River: ($10.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets [$50]</font>

(Hero is not me. I folded on the flop).

So, are you calling here?

SB is a solid player - not showing any signs of being suicidal.

[sillyarms]

no, the way the hand went down it seems either he has a 4 and I'm screwed or an A and we split $5 a peice. that's risking $50 dollars for a shot at $5.

So making the assumption he either has an A or a 4

5.375(1-x) + -50x = 0
x = 0.09706546275

if he has the 4 more than 9.7% of the time and the rest of the time we split this is a losing bet. I think he has it at least 25% of the time.

silly

[bghbgh2]

What does the 5.375 represent in that EV calculation sillyarms?

Thanks.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Do I have to play the rest of the hand that way? 'Cause I'd really rather fold on the flop.

[Zag]

This is almost the right analysis (assuming that there is zero chance that SB would do this without at least an ace). The $5.375 represents hero's share of the existing pot, which was $10.75 when SB made his bet (and, on a chop, you can ignore the size of the bet because hero and SB will just be taking their own money back).

However, there are two flaws with this calculation: First, you are not accounting for the rake, which you need to subtract from the $5.375. Party will still rake the entire $100+ pot, even though it is being chopped. Second, the hero only has $48.60 left, so the second term should only show him losing that much.

But the final result is still 9.7%, rounded off, so I guess I am just picking nits.

Oh yeah, and I'm with TheWorstPlayer (who continues to deny his nickname) that folding the flop would be the best move, or, heck, how about preflop? I also don't hate raising the flop, but I think calling was the worst possible choice.