A nice draw (played badly?)

[dbitel]

Party Poker (max 6) 50NL

UTG ( $75.65 )
CO ( $50.98 )
Button( $28.62 )
Hero (SB) ( $26.75 )
BB ( $54.1 )

Hero posts small blind [$0.25].
BB posts big blind [$0.5].

Hero has 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

2 folds, Button calls, SB(poster) completes, BB checks

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero bets $0.5, 1 fold, Button raises to $2.5, Hero raises to $6, Button calls all in ($26.12), Hero???

Is this a call? The odds are surely near to a coinflip? Should I just be flat calling his bet on the flop or maybe should I be raising more on the flop?

[jacknine]

think you were right about the flat call on the flop - you´re making your draw a lot more expensive now. I´d just fold since you´re probably behind and can´t say for sure that even IF you make a straight or flush, you have the winning hand... And don´t even think about hitting that 8 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Ghazban]

Bet more on the flop, then when you get raised, you can push. This puts your opponent to the call/fold decision instead of you.

[Chicago Kid]

Based on any reads you may have, what do you think he is likely to be holding? Your read is absolutely critical....

Based on the re-raise, I would guess he's got at least a Q, and possibly a better flush draw than you, and I'd be folding.

If he has a Q, or an overpair, you're about a 55-45 dog, probably enough to justify the call.

But if he has a Q with a flush draw, your odds slump to 82-18.

Trips, 65-35.

[Zag]

You are HOPING you have a little worse than a coin flip, in which case you barely have odds to draw: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=996304

But you might be up against a set, which you don't have odds to draw against: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=996279

Or a better flush draw, which you don't have odds to draw against: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=996308

Or a better draw with a pair, against which you are dominated and a huge dog: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=996309

So, you might be barely positive EV, with equal chance of being dramatically negative EV. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

[dbitel]

[ QUOTE ]
Based on any reads you may have, what do you think he is likely to be holding? Your read is absolutely critical....

Based on the re-raise, I would guess he's got at least a Q, and possibly a better flush draw than you, and I'd be folding.

If he has a Q, or an overpair, you're about a 55-45 dog, probably enough to justify the call.

But if he has a Q with a flush draw, your odds slump to 82-18.

Trips, 65-35.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had joined the table only a few orbits ago, so no real reads. After the push, he had to have at least the Q I thought. Was a matter of if he just had Q nice kicker, 2 pair, or Q with a flush draw...and I really wasn't sure which one.

[The_Bends]

Preflop pot = $1.50

Flop pot (excluding final raise) = 0.50 initial bet + (0.50+$2) raise + $5.50 reraise + $3.50 villian makes up heros reraise
Flop pot = $12

total pot = $13.50

reraise = 28.62 (villains stack) -6.50 (ammount Villain has commited to pot
reraise = $22 (approx)

35.50:22

22/(35.5+22)= 0.38

Therefore need to win 38% of the time to make a profit.

Against TP/Overpair

9s 6s 464 46.87 526 53.13 0 0.00 0.469
Ad Qh 526 53.13 464 46.87 0 0.00 0.531

Against 2pair

9s 6s 404 40.81 586 59.19 0 0.00 0.408
7d Qh 586 59.19 404 40.81 0 0.00 0.592

Set

9s 6s 344 34.75 646 65.25 0 0.00 0.347
Qc Qh 646 65.25 344 34.75 0 0.00 0.653

Flush Draw

9s 6s 323 32.63 667 67.37 0 0.00 0.326
Ks 2s 667 67.37 323 32.63 0 0.00 0.674

Pair + FD

9s 6s 176 17.78 814 82.22 0 0.00 0.178
Qs 2s 814 82.22 176 17.78 0 0.00 0.822

A call is only profitable against a bluff, a single pair, or two pair. the reraise would seem to rule out a single pair so against the villians probable range this is a fold.

I realise this is an exceptionally long winded analysis of the situation but its the first one I've done so I'd love the hear where I've gone wrong.