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  #21  
Old 12-31-2005, 02:35 AM
Catt Catt is offline
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Default Re: Hand...

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It took me a long time to analyze this, but now that I've thought this through I think you are almost always screwed and reraising is out of the question.

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I think you're off here, Stellar. There are a wide variety of hands that a wide variety of Villain's could play like this. An aggressive stealer could open any 2, continue on the flop, pick up a FD on the turn, and C/R bluff the river as a last chance to win the hand. An aggressive player could play a PP like this. An aggressive player could play a 5 like this, or a hand with a J in it like this. A neutral-ish player (aggression-wise) could play until the river like this -- on the river we should be more concerned, but he could still be playing a variety of Ax hands like this as well as a J, sometimes a PP, sometimes a desperation bluff-raise. A passive player is cause for greater concern. I don't think a passive player ever plays a 9 like this, but the improbable JJ, a weirdly played AJ, a J5 (if such a player could raise this pre-flop), etc. Even among passive players, you're going to see Ax played like this quite a bit from those who think they're tricky poker experts.

We don't have a read on the player, so we don't know what sort of player he is, but on balance most guys in this game are going to fall on the neutral-to-aggressive side of the line. And Krishan's play gives no indication whatsoever that Villain should need a monster to C/R the river -- Krishan called the raise pre, called the flop, and bet when checked to on the turn. I think, if Krishan is unknwon to Villain, Villain could reasonably assume that Krishan has air here (which makes Villain's turn and river play very bad). This sort of betting pattern between SB and BB happens all the time, and until the river C/R there is nothing especially informative about the betting patterns -- now the C/R gives us the the best actionable information on Villain's holding, but I think his range (as an unknown sitting at a PP 10/20 table) is more than wide enough that a 3-bet is the best on this river, even when we know we're always calling a cap.
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  #22  
Old 12-31-2005, 02:38 AM
Lmn55d Lmn55d is offline
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Default Re: Hand...

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An aggressive stealer could open any 2, continue on the flop, pick up a FD on the turn, and C/R bluff the river as a last chance to win the hand

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99.9% of the aggressive stealers I've played against would either bet or checkraise this turn with a flush draw.

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An aggressive player could play a PP like this. An aggressive player could play a 5 like this, or a hand with a J in it like this.

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If they have those hands they usually want to showdown with them for cheap. I see no reason why they would checkraise the river, they probably think there is a decent chance they are good and just want to showdown.
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  #23  
Old 12-31-2005, 02:54 AM
Catt Catt is offline
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Default Re: Hand...

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99.9% of the aggressive stealers I've played against would either bet or checkraise this turn with a flush draw.

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Yes, many would. But your hyperbole is too much. There's a decent subset of these players who will ck-cl the the turn planning on C/Ring any river (flush or otherwise), IMHO.

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If they have those hands they usually want to showdown with them for cheap. I see no reason why they would checkraise the river, they probably think there is a decent chance they are good and just want to showdown.

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I see no reason why they would want to do so either without a read on Krishan that is inaccurate (i.e., that he's no good and will call the river C/R with goofy stuff). But because I don't see why they would, doesn't mean that they don't have a reason. You don't think aggressive guys try and get an extra bet from a (presumably) unknown instead of just looking to SD a possible winner? I think that's more likely with a naked 5, but think you'll see this line from Ax a lot, and from a J sometimes, and from a PP often enough not to dismiss ot from the range.

Do you agree with Stellar that an unknown's range given the action and board makes reraising out of the question?
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  #24  
Old 12-31-2005, 02:59 AM
cartman cartman is offline
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Default Re: Hand...

This looks very much like a FPS monster to me. JJ makes the most sense. I think it is very unlikely that he has Ax. I don't think we are good 66% so I would just call.

Cartman
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  #25  
Old 12-31-2005, 03:00 AM
Lmn55d Lmn55d is offline
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Default Re: Hand...

Well I'm not saying it's impossible that you will be raised by a jack or pocket pair here, but I just really can't remember it ever happening to me in a similar spot. As for the comment about the flush draw, I think if he's aggressive he seriously bets or checkraises about 90-95% of the time. What do you think that number is?

I don't think reraising is "out of the question" at all. But I think if your 3bet is called or reraised, you're winning here (not including splitting which we can ignore) somewhere between 50-60% of the time. Thats just a guess though...I really don't know.
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  #26  
Old 12-31-2005, 03:19 AM
Catt Catt is offline
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Default Re: Hand...

I think 75+% you'll see a bet or a C/R from a FD here - which is still a biggish number but not quite as high as I guess you think.

And I agree partially on the chances we're good -- I think when we're capped we're a decent dog; but I think when we're just called we're in very good shape. And, though I can't hazard a guess on the blended percentage, my thought is that we're called way more often than capped.
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  #27  
Old 12-31-2005, 03:24 AM
Lmn55d Lmn55d is offline
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Default Re: Hand...

[ QUOTE ]
And I agree partially on the chances we're good -- I think when we're capped we're a decent dog; but I think when we're just called we're in very good shape. And, though I can't hazard a guess on the blended percentage, my thought is that we're called way more often than capped

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Ya, what I was just trying to say with that 50-60 statement (which was a little cryptic), was that I don't think you are good the requisite 66% here if we assume villain never folds, and always reraises with better hands. If he folds some of the hands you are ahead of , we need to be ahead a greater percentage.
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  #28  
Old 12-31-2005, 05:00 AM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Default Re: Hand...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
An aggressive stealer could open any 2, continue on the flop, pick up a FD on the turn, and C/R bluff the river as a last chance to win the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

99.9% of the aggressive stealers I've played against would either bet or checkraise this turn with a flush draw.

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An aggressive player could play a PP like this. An aggressive player could play a 5 like this, or a hand with a J in it like this.

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If they have those hands they usually want to showdown with them for cheap. I see no reason why they would checkraise the river, they probably think there is a decent chance they are good and just want to showdown.

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This is essentially my answer too.

That a steal-minded PFR Villain would not represent the ace by betting (or rarely checkraising) the turn is shocking. I think the inference that checkcall means too good to bluff is very strong. Of course Villain could have the flush draw if he is very passive about semibluffing, but then he won't be bluff checkraising the river.

There is also the issue that checkraise bluffers don't usually call reraises.

This 3-bet needs to make its money off of Ax and underpair hands that went for the exotic delayed value sexy with a moderate made hand. Far be it from me to say that this play is never made, after all everything happens in this game, but offhand I can't remember ever seeing it.

Once again there is the issue that one-pair hands may fold. Overall you will virtually always be capped when you are behind, virtually never be capped when you are scooping, and will frequently not be paid when you are best. The odds are really stacked against this 3-bet.
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  #29  
Old 12-31-2005, 06:41 AM
DeezNutz3 DeezNutz3 is offline
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Default Re: Hand...

I would like a flop raise here to not put a lot of pressure on an A high hand an encourage a call down.
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  #30  
Old 12-31-2005, 12:55 PM
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Default Re: Hand...

No reads? Hmmmm.....

This is one of those situations where "your guess is as good as mine". No matter what villain had this hand, it's fairly clear that he sucked at playing it. If he has a worse hand than you do, he'll only succeed in losing more when he's already behind. If he has a monster, he'll only succeed in making more when you have a slightly smaller monster. His line bites the big one.

That said, your river play is all about how frisky you feel. If you feel like being conservative, call. If you feel like being aggressive, raise. I've seen both Aces and monsters played this way (very rarely in both cases) and every time it was done so by a donkey. Considering he sucks, it really doesn't matter much what you do. You will be right enough times to offset the times you're wrong and you will be wrong enough times to offset the times you're right.

Of course, any slight read of the opponent (even 10 hands) would sway the river decision one way or another. Without that, I see no reason to even play 92s for the raise as another poster (Stellar, I think [I'm too lazy to look back]) pointed out.
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