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  #1  
Old 11-11-2005, 04:46 PM
EverettKings EverettKings is offline
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Default **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**

A couple weeks back, in this thread about satellite strategy, Adanthar made this claim:

[ QUOTE ]

[*I am open to a $1000 or more wager that I can make it from a miniStep 1 (5+1) to a miniStep 5 (400+30) playing on $30 or less. I'd make it less than that but I've gotta leave room for aces getting cracked. Of course, this blatantly ignores $/hour.]

[/ QUOTE ]

And what do we do on 2+2 when someone make some fat spankingly outrageous claim like that? Why, we wager of course.

So after a few PMs, we settle on a bet of $1,000. Adanthar has an account with $30 in it, can play only ministep 1s (and any freerolls earned thereafter). If he at any time gets an entry into a ministep 5, he wins and gets a shiny trophy (read: ten benjamins). If he has run his account to less than enough to buy in to a ministep 1 and has no freerolls left, I win the trophy and he gets a certificate of participation.


Since the money has been sent to an intermediary and the games begun, we can both now explain why we're so goddamn certain that we're getting the best of it. I estimate his chance of success to be 25%. I'm assuming that he's an outstanding player.

Would like to see what some of you think about this as the games play out, and what Adanthar has to say about it.

And boy am I ever going to have to eat my words if he makes it.

Everett
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  #2  
Old 11-11-2005, 04:49 PM
Jman28 Jman28 is offline
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Default Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**

I'm interested to see the results of this (although they won't pove anything). I think you have the best of it.
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  #3  
Old 11-11-2005, 04:50 PM
durron597 durron597 is offline
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Default Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**

Adanthar only needs to succeed at this more than half the time in order to have an edge on this bet.

Edit: but I'm sure you realized that.
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  #4  
Old 11-11-2005, 04:53 PM
Dave D Dave D is offline
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Default Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**

Do pros multitable the higher end ministeps like they do the regular steps? I think if there's a lot of pros just multitabling them that throws a huge wrench into the works.

I think it's feasable, I've made it to a regular step 4 before on just like 2 or 3 step 1 buy ins. I just think it would take so long for him to pull off that it's not worth it for the $/hour, especially with all the pros at the final stage, and the fact that it takes forever for the step 3s and 4s to fill.
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  #5  
Old 11-11-2005, 04:57 PM
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Default Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**

how is he setting up a new account? The only reason i ask, is that I assume this is your only way to confirm that no other money has been deposited in the account (which i guess means that you would have access to this account also so that you can confirm the deposits).

Anyway, I think this is a very interesting wager and wish you both good luck.

If I understand steps right, I think you are on the better end of the wager. He basically gets 5 tries at making something happens (inside of those 5 tries he can have numerous retrys by way of freerolling, but essentially he is not going to receive any money for placing in top spots, since it only gains him access to the next step, so his $30 will never increase). 5 tries only, hmmmm... I hope he's good, otherwise very bad wager for him.
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  #6  
Old 11-11-2005, 05:00 PM
EverettKings EverettKings is offline
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Default Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**

[ QUOTE ]
how is he setting up a new account? The only reason i ask, is that I assume this is your only way to confirm that no other money has been deposited in the account (which i guess means that you would have access to this account also so that you can confirm the deposits).

Anyway, I think this is a very interesting wager and wish you both good luck.

If I understand steps right, I think you are on the better end of the wager. He basically gets 5 tries at making something happens (inside of those 5 tries he can have numerous retrys by way of freerolling, but essentially he is not going to receive any money for placing in top spots, since it only gains him access to the next step, so his $30 will never increase). 5 tries only, hmmmm... I hope he's good, otherwise very bad wager for him.

[/ QUOTE ]

He emptied his account and changed the pw so i have access to it for the duration of the challenge. I'm not at all worried about his honesty, just his ego [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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  #7  
Old 11-11-2005, 05:02 PM
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Default Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**

I'm guessing you've got the best of it. Someone with some programming skills should monte-carlo this and figure out how good adanthar needs to be to make his wager correct.
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  #8  
Old 11-11-2005, 05:05 PM
Exitonly Exitonly is offline
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Default Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**

[ QUOTE ]
Adanthar only needs to succeed at this more than half the time in order to have an edge on this bet.

Edit: but I'm sure you realized that.

[/ QUOTE ]


And if you count that he actually WINS the step 5, when he wins the bet, he only has to win like 20% of the time (i refuse to do the actual math.

---


This is an awesome bet, i hope you/adanthar keeps up posted. I might even want to sweat some SnG's ( [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img])
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  #9  
Old 11-11-2005, 05:06 PM
EverettKings EverettKings is offline
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Default Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing you've got the best of it. Someone with some programming skills should monte-carlo this and figure out how good adanthar needs to be to make his wager correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe somebody did [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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  #10  
Old 11-11-2005, 05:11 PM
AtticusFinch AtticusFinch is offline
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Default Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**

I will buck the trend and say my boy Adanthar has the best of it. I have my reasons, and they go beyond mere nepotism. If you want to know why, do 2 things:

1) Look at the payout structure for mini step 1, and see what place you need to get to get a "try again, step 1" freeroll (or better).

2) Log onto Party, pull up the list of mini step 1s, look at number of players left, and the level.

Adanthar will have far more than 6 shots at getting to step 4.
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