Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Turn

[bdohaney]

I disagree greatly with most of the panel on this hand. I think this is a case of one of two situations. Either the hero is way ahead, or he is way behind. There are several possible hands that the villainn could have that we would ave soundly beat, AJ, possibly KJ, AT, AQ, JdTd and unlikely KQ JT or QQ. Now, just as likely (if not MORE likely), the villain could be holding AA, KK, JJ, AK, AKs (diamonds would be bad) and an unlikely QT. With how things have played out so far, it is VERY likely that the villain has the better hand here. Another question would be what hands could our villain be putting the hero on here? I would think that he would put our range at something similar. So, unless he is a real donk, I seriously doubt he would be betting 800 on this turn. That bet just asks for the hero to push (as many of you have decided to do). If the villain is holding AA, hero is drawing dead. Against KK, hero has 2 outs; JJ - 4, AKs chop or the villain has 9 outs to draw the nut flush, and the unlikely QT where the hero also has 4 outs. With the reraise on the flop, I don't see the villain (if he is an even reasonably good player) continuing to play any of the hands that the hero can beat. I think that this is clearly a fold situation. Barring further information, I am going to assume that the villain is a good player. I think that it is close, but I am going to give the villain credit for having a strong hand here and let it go. If the villain is a bad enough player to be continuing to play a marginal hand that far against that kind of betting, that I will be able to get my chips back on later hands.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree greatly with most of the panel on this hand. I think this is a case of one of two situations. Either the hero is way ahead, or he is way behind. There are several possible hands that the villainn could have that we would ave soundly beat, AJ, possibly KJ, AT, AQ, JdTd and unlikely KQ JT or QQ. Now, just as likely (if not MORE likely), the villain could be holding AA, KK, JJ, AK, AKs (diamonds would be bad) and an unlikely QT. With how things have played out so far, it is VERY likely that the villain has the better hand here. Another question would be what hands could our villain be putting the hero on here? I would think that he would put our range at something similar. So, unless he is a real donk, I seriously doubt he would be betting 800 on this turn. That bet just asks for the hero to push (as many of you have decided to do). If the villain is holding AA, hero is drawing dead. Against KK, hero has 2 outs; JJ - 4, AKs chop or the villain has 9 outs to draw the nut flush, and the unlikely QT where the hero also has 4 outs. With the reraise on the flop, I don't see the villain (if he is an even reasonably good player) continuing to play any of the hands that the hero can beat. I think that this is clearly a fold situation. Barring further information, I am going to assume that the villain is a good player. I think that it is close, but I am going to give the villain credit for having a strong hand here and let it go. If the villain is a bad enough player to be continuing to play a marginal hand that far against that kind of betting, that I will be able to get my chips back on later hands.

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Journal 10/14/05...

"and lastly, if I ever find myself at a final table with a guy who looks like a giant Gavin Griffin, fire the 2nd barrell 100% of the time."

[SossMan]

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I disagree greatly with most of the panel on this hand. I think this is a case of one of two situations. Either the hero is way ahead, or he is way behind. There are several possible hands that the villainn could have that we would ave soundly beat, AJ, possibly KJ, AT, AQ, JdTd and unlikely KQ JT or QQ. Now, just as likely (if not MORE likely), the villain could be holding AA, KK, JJ, AK, AKs (diamonds would be bad) and an unlikely QT. With how things have played out so far, it is VERY likely that the villain has the better hand here. Another question would be what hands could our villain be putting the hero on here? I would think that he would put our range at something similar. So, unless he is a real donk, I seriously doubt he would be betting 800 on this turn. That bet just asks for the hero to push (as many of you have decided to do). If the villain is holding AA, hero is drawing dead. Against KK, hero has 2 outs; JJ - 4, AKs chop or the villain has 9 outs to draw the nut flush, and the unlikely QT where the hero also has 4 outs. With the reraise on the flop, I don't see the villain (if he is an even reasonably good player) continuing to play any of the hands that the hero can beat. I think that this is clearly a fold situation. Barring further information, I am going to assume that the villain is a good player. I think that it is close, but I am going to give the villain credit for having a strong hand here and let it go. If the villain is a bad enough player to be continuing to play a marginal hand that far against that kind of betting, that I will be able to get my chips back on later hands.

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Journal 10/14/05...

"and lastly, if I ever find myself at a final table with a guy who looks like a giant Gavin Griffin, fire the 2nd barrell 100% of the time."

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lmao...vnh, sir.

[Exitonly]

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I disagree greatly with most of the panel on this hand. I think this is a case of one of two situations. Either the hero is way ahead, or he is way behind. There are several possible hands that the villainn could have that we would ave soundly beat, AJ, possibly KJ, AT, AQ, JdTd and unlikely KQ JT or QQ. Now, just as likely (if not MORE likely), the villain could be holding AA, KK, JJ, AK, AKs (diamonds would be bad) and an unlikely QT. With how things have played out so far, it is VERY likely that the villain has the better hand here. Another question would be what hands could our villain be putting the hero on here? I would think that he would put our range at something similar. So, unless he is a real donk, I seriously doubt he would be betting 800 on this turn. That bet just asks for the hero to push (as many of you have decided to do). If the villain is holding AA, hero is drawing dead. Against KK, hero has 2 outs; JJ - 4, AKs chop or the villain has 9 outs to draw the nut flush, and the unlikely QT where the hero also has 4 outs. With the reraise on the flop, I don't see the villain (if he is an even reasonably good player) continuing to play any of the hands that the hero can beat. I think that this is clearly a fold situation. Barring further information, I am going to assume that the villain is a good player. I think that it is close, but I am going to give the villain credit for having a strong hand here and let it go. If the villain is a bad enough player to be continuing to play a marginal hand that far against that kind of betting, that I will be able to get my chips back on later hands.

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Journal 10/14/05...

"and lastly, if I ever find myself at a final table with a guy who looks like a giant Gavin Griffin, fire the 2nd barrell 100% of the time."

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Wow, lol, actually still laughing about that... NH sir.

[rwanger]

I'm starting to think along the same lines as bdoheny...I'm getting worried that we're behind. I believe a two pair hand (or even a set) would make a larger bet into this board, since, from his perspective, we could easily have top pair with a gutshot, in which case, he should think we have something like 9 outs against his KJ, and he'd be giving us pretty close odds to call.

I'm also no longer considering that villian has a 1 pair hand. If his check raise was to find out where he is at, there is no way he bets half the pot on the turn thinking his hand is still good after we called his checkraise.

If I had flopped the straight, I might play it exactly like the villian has (although, I would probably lead the flop). He's slowly getting all of his chips in, but his bets are small enough that it's going to be very hard for us to get off of even a TPTK hand (AQ in this case).

I'm 100% sure that he puts us all in on the river, so we are playing for the rest of our stack here.

It is REALLY starting to look like QT to me, but that being said, folding would be an AMAZINGLY DICIPLINED laydown. I don't think I could make it. Obviously, a read on villian would be extremely useful here.

If we fold, we'll have 18x left, which is not ideal obviously, but not significantly different than the 26x we started with. Of course, doubling up to 52x would be great. I might almost consider the texture of the table here. Are we getting respect for our raises? If we can successfully steal blinds, and aggressively take down small pots, I wouldn't mind folding as much. However, if people are mixing it up with us and most pots are contested, then it seems like we might not get a better spot to collect a ton of chips before moving into push or fold territory.

In real life, I probably push.
If I had 10 minutes at the table to think about it, I might be able to find a fold.

[Nicholasp27]

i think u guys are getting worried that we are beat because of the fact that this is a 'masters' hand and u have a pre-conceived notion that the hand has to have a 'twist' or something


the fact is, this hand got lots of discussion and varying recommendations pf,on the flop (twice), and now here, where people have made compelling arguments for fold/call/push

the fact that there is this much discussion makes this a good hand...remember, it's not about what u do, but why u come to that conclusion and do it...and we've seen lots of discussion on why people would do a variety of things in this hand

i'm sure a lot of people have learned a lot from this hand's discussions...that's the point of this series, and the reason that i've come over from the stt forum to read this

[KneeCo]

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AKs (diamonds would be bad) [...] AKs chop or the villain has 9 outs to draw the nut flush

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Unless he's got a backdoor flush draw (K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is the only one that makes sense to me)

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A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is on the board, and Hero is holding K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

If the villain has the flush draw he either has Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (unlikely by all accounts, includ. yours) or is behind right now, but now there are more potential scare cards for the next street then there were going to the turn (Q,J,T, any [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), another argument for pushing IMO.

It seems to me inevitable that someone is going to have the screws put to them soon in this hand, better him now, then me after a Q,J,T or [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] river. As for folding, I just don't see myself laying this down.

[KneeCo]

I suck, sorry, misclick (man, this is the second time I mess with this thread)

[grandgnu]

I agree that this hand is pretty straight forward and boring. Our hand is too strong to fold. If we call, all the money is going in on the river, how can we fold, regardless of what falls on the river?

What if opponent is on A/Q of diamonds and the river is a rag diamond? We didn't see it coming at all, and we can't figure a rag to have helped his hand any.

A push is our best line because:

1. There is a slight possibility he'll fold (any possibility for us to take the hand down now and avoid elimination sounds good to me)

2. If he has two pair that we beat, he won't get away from it on a scary river card, we'll get paid off now.

[EverettKings]

Look, there are just too many hands he could play this way that we beat, and I can hardly expect a typical player (let alone a party 100er) to be able to lay down anything decent to a push here. Folding is only really viable if we have some sick Giga-read that leads us to believe otherwise. No such read was given. I push.

Everett