i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,, - Page 4

Crispy · #31 11-23-2005, 07:47 PM

Everything is in terms ROI. If i Play for 3-4 hrs and only make 1/10 my buyin in profit, then Im gonna be pissed. The problem is, 10k is a lot of money to low stakes players, but when you buy into the tournament, it is obviously not that much money to you. These players might be playing with a role of 300-400k, and could care less about squeeking into the money. Stop being weak tight.

Melchiades · #32 11-23-2005, 07:50 PM

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Everything is in terms ROI. If i Play for 3-4 hrs and only make 1/10 my buyin in profit, then Im gonna be pissed.

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You must either make an insane amount of money or be pissed off a lot.

SossMan · #33 11-23-2005, 08:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Place Amount
1 $2,142,000
2 $1,035,000
3 $759,000
4 $483,000
5 $345,000
6 $276,000
7 $207,000
8 $172,800
9 $138,000
10 $117,300
11 $103,500
12 $96,600
13 $89,700
14 $82,800
15 $75,900
16 $69,000
17 $62,100
18 $55,200
19 $48,300
20 $41,300
21-25 $34,500
26-30 $27,600
31-35 $20,700
36-40 $17,200
41-50 $14,000
51-70 $12,000
71-120 $11,000

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This is an 11k jump in prize money. The next 11k jump is from 10th to 9th place. $EV and chipEV have fully diverged in this spot. It's not even all that clear that this is very highly chipEV. If you must raise, I would rather put in an amount that of like 4k or so assuming people will think I'm PC'd and fold to a reraise. It's silly, but this is a silly situation.

Temp Hutter · #34 11-23-2005, 08:37 PM

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It wasnt mine, but someone who is very good....

121 players left...120 get paid...71-120 get 11,000$....41-70 get 12k..

Chip Jett is at another table with 2 antes in his stack.

Blinds 600/1200 200 ante.

Hero has more chips than apporximately 12 people, and is UTG with 9600 chips and JJ. Many at the table have big stacks including the bb.

Hero?

sheets

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If the hero wants to do more than make the money then the hero needs to push.

At almost this exact same time as the example above I pushed about 15K all in with 88. No one called me. I was all in a few times as we got close to the bubble. I wanted chips or I wanted to go home.

SossMan · #35 11-23-2005, 08:41 PM

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At almost this exact same time as the example above I pushed about 15K all in with 88. No one called me. I was all in a few times as we got close to the bubble. I wanted chips or I wanted to go home.

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nobody called, you say?

then clearly it's a push.

Temp Hutter · #36 11-23-2005, 08:44 PM

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I bet out 3K hoping to take it down preflop. If someone comes over-the-top, you still have options. Against tight big stacks, you can fold and still have enough to get through the blinds and limp into the money. Of course you can also decide to gamble...

I know most people cringe at the thought of putting in 1/3 stack and then having to fold, but folding would be read dependent, and you do have a legit shot at taking it down...

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There was a guy at my table that tried to raise three times when we were 1 or 2 from the bubble. He was re-raised off his hand everytime. I wanted to jump up and tell him to quit putting money into a pot that he will not defend. The poor kid got run over because he didn't want to go broke on the bubble. He would have been better served never even looking at his cards but instead just tossing them in the muck until we made the money.

gumpzilla · #37 11-23-2005, 09:01 PM

This seems to be pretty much a pure math problem, but I haven't really seen anybody attempt much math.

I made some assumptions:

1) Pessimistically, I assumed that our EV if we fold is $9900 - 90% to make the money, and when we do make the money, we make $11000, no more.

2) I assumed a tight calling range for 8 players (I'm guessing) at the table of JJ-AA, AK. TT and AQ are reasonable to include as well and would help JJ out a reasonable amount, but it also means you get called more. With the hands I looked at, and assuming 8 players to act with identical calling ranges, you're getting called ~20% of the time.

3) Winning the blinds shouldn't really help you all that much. We'll say your equity is now 11000 in that scenario.

4) Because the payout structure climbs very, very slowly at this point, winning the hand doesn't help you that much. Assuming you still have a sub-par stack, most of the time you're going to finish getting 14000 or less. This is the part that's hardest to quantify, and I would love to see some better effort here. I assumed equity if you win a push to be about 16000. I doubt that your equity comes very close to doubling at all. Against the ranges I specified, JJ has an equity of about 36%, which I use to approximate likelihood of winning.

Given all of those assumptions, it is very, very close to EV neutral as to whether you push or fold. However, as I mentioned, I intentionally lowballed the equity of folding (this also means that I lowballed the equity of just stealing the blinds, but it's obvious that you can't really gain that much from that.) So I think it's a close decision, but likely a fold. It certainly doesn't seem like a huge missed profit opportunity to me.

schwza · #38 11-23-2005, 09:05 PM

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TT and AQ are reasonable to include as well and would help JJ out a reasonable amount

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if you push and BB holds AQ, you desperately want him to fold. i haven't looked at numbers, but i'm getting you'd slightly prefer junk like K8s fold to push rather than call. the reason that you want to make this play is to pick up the blinds and increase your stack from 9600 to 9600+2800, not to get called and try to double up.

#39 11-23-2005, 09:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This seems to be pretty much a pure math problem, but I haven't really seen anybody attempt much math.

I made some assumptions:

1) Pessimistically, I assumed that our EV if we fold is $9900 - 90% to make the money, and when we do make the money, we make $11000, no more.

2) I assumed a tight calling range for 8 players (I'm guessing) at the table of JJ-AA, AK. TT and AQ are reasonable to include as well and would help JJ out a reasonable amount, but it also means you get called more. With the hands I looked at, and assuming 8 players to act with identical calling ranges, you're getting called ~20% of the time.

3) Winning the blinds shouldn't really help you all that much. We'll say your equity is now 11000 in that scenario.

4) Because the payout structure climbs very, very slowly at this point, winning the hand doesn't help you that much. Assuming you still have a sub-par stack, most of the time you're going to finish getting 14000 or less. This is the part that's hardest to quantify, and I would love to see some better effort here. I assumed equity if you win a push to be about 16000. I doubt that your equity comes very close to doubling at all. Against the ranges I specified, JJ has an equity of about 36%, which I use to approximate likelihood of winning.

Given all of those assumptions, it is very, very close to EV neutral as to whether you push or fold. However, as I mentioned, I intentionally lowballed the equity of folding (this also means that I lowballed the equity of just stealing the blinds, but it's obvious that you can't really gain that much from that.) So I think it's a close decision, but likely a fold. It certainly doesn't seem like a huge missed profit opportunity to me.

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Thank you. You made about the most pessimistic assumptions possible, btw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

gumpzilla · #40 11-23-2005, 09:09 PM

This is bad timing for a blind steal, in my opinion. As I pointed out, the blinds do barely anything for you $EV wise, so you're risking substantially for not much gain. If all we're interested in is the blinds, why not wait until we have 72 on the button, which would probably be a higher EV play?

I guess my point is that JJ just isn't dominant enough to make this a substantial money winner, from what I've looked at so far. I must admit, I was expecting it to be an easy, easy fold; the numbers are closer to neutral than I would have guessed.