55 from sb in the party 10/20...

joseki · #1 11-07-2005, 07:51 PM

MP is 34/27/1.7; we've played a ton of hands and, given his aggression, I often let him bet my hand for me. I think he may be aware of this tendency.

BB is your typical loose passive (50/3/0.7), except that he doesn't get to showdown as often as most (34%).

Party Poker 10.00/20.00 Hold'em (6 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 folds, MP raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (9.00 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP raises, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP bets, Hero raises, BB folds, MP 3-bets, Hero ???

Questions:
Anyone call or fold this pf?
Is the turn c/r spewing?
Do I have any clean outs?

luckyharr · #2 11-07-2005, 08:56 PM

Seems like a set or flush. I think he would have capped preflop with an overpair that he could overplay to this degree. You're getting 13.5-1 immediate odds. At 27 PFR, it seems like 66, 77, and 88 are all in his range at UTG +1. That's 9 combos. He probably raises A9s-AKs, KTs-KQs, QTs, QJs, JTs from that position preflop. That's about 11 combos. There are probably some other strange hands (22, QQ) that you can draw out on that I think it's around 50/50 that you can improve to the best hand. Let's call it 7 effective outs (I'm not counting the 7 of spades as an out.) so 32/46 times you are calling the turn and folding the river. 14/46 times you are calling the turn and river, winning half of those times. I think the EV is below(I'm assuming you win another bet on the river when you improve and your hand is good)

7/46(14.5) - 7/46(2) - 32/46(1) = 1.2 BB

Now that I did the calculation I realized that 7 effective outs in a pot this big is obviously enough to call. Call the turn, fold the river unimproved. I don't think you are beating anything if the 7s falls either.

Preflop is close. I'd like it more with a tight BB. Playing 55 out of position 3-handed is tough. Folding does seem weak though.

I don't like the turn check raise. It seems like a semi-bluff that will never win the hand right there. MP raised preflop, raised the flop, and bet the turn. He likes his hand. I think he's going to showdown. Your turn check raise can't be for value and blowing BB out of the hand doesn't seem worth it.

mex78753 · #3 11-07-2005, 09:21 PM

Dont like the 3 bet with such a loose BB in front of you. Generally people with those stats will call 2 cold with almost anything in the bb.

I actually like the turn checkraise because it's very tricky and it's a good time to make a tricky play since you tend to let him bet your hands anyway.

Given your history I think you have to fold this on the turn. It seems odd that he'd overplay an overpair like this. Looks more like he had a flush draw or a possible set on the flop.

Easy fold imo.

Victor · #4 11-07-2005, 09:39 PM

dont fold this turn.

joseki · #5 11-07-2005, 11:43 PM

Thanks for the analysis. In the heat of the hand (and being semi-tilted) I felt 'certain' I was drawing dead to a flush and folded. I immediately regretted folding. I thought about it some more and wondered which decision was worse, the pf 3-bet, flop call, turn c/r, or the fold. I sort of like the turn c/r (to clean up flush outs and get bb to fold a better pair), but the rest probably suck.

I think this might be a good example of playing slightly tilted and jumping to decisions without accurately considering important information (e.g. loose bb, bad table image, potential outs, etc.).

livinitup0 · #6 11-08-2005, 01:16 AM

Id just call preflop.
Id lead and 3bet the flop. Id go to check call mode on the turn if he caps the flop.
And yes the turn looks a little spewy to me.

Outs....I dont see any hope here for improvement. I dont know if given the opponenet that you need it. I hate seeing A-low paired kicker here. But your real fear should be the flush. If you put him on a hand like AKs, AQs, KQs then all this would make sense.

To be honest it kinda looks like he hit his flush draw.

luckyharr · #7 11-08-2005, 02:45 PM

4 responses, 2 say fold, 2 say call. I didn't think it was that close. Looking back at my analysis, I realized that of the 3 set of 7s combos, 2 involve the 7 of spades, but I also think 87s and 76s (27 PFR might include these) could be possibilities and the villain can comfortably three-bet because he has you on an overpair. Yes, the flush looks probable but this pot is huge. I still say call and fold river unimproved.

econ_tim · #8 11-08-2005, 03:11 PM

Preflop and flop are fine.

For turn, I like leading rather than c/r-ing. I expect villain to raise a lot of hands that missed on the flop and the turn likely didn't help him.

You are definately not folding on the turn with your pair, gutshot and flush draw. Even when you're ahead, you are still vulnerable. Leading protects your hand better than check/raising (and prevents villain from taking a free card).

Saborion · #9 11-08-2005, 03:24 PM

I'm a bit curious about the preflop play. 3-betting will not get rid of the loose BB often enough to make it the correct play. If we cold-call and the BB tags along we will have to make about 5 BB postflop or take it down unimproved. I don't think either will happen enough to make the preflop cold-call correct, making a fold the best option out of the three. Not too many advocated a fold preflop though, so what is wrong with my thought process?

goofball · #10 11-08-2005, 04:42 PM

The turn c/r sucks especially sinc eit's more likely to drive the loose passive BB out. Even loose passive fish can fold for two cold on the turn. Turnk donk is way way way better than turn checkraise. In fact I like turn donk best. You could easily have the best hand, if you don't you have tons of outs, and I think donking brings the BB into the pot with a huge range.