(22) How can this call be -EV$?

[golfcchs]

Thanks for clearing this up. I understand the ICM just gives you the equity and calling and folding is then based soley on the hand ranges you put you opponents on.

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And finally, given the specifics of this particular hand, in my opinion, folding would only be a clear play given a pretty strong read on SB as a scared money tightwad.


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Is this meant for the JJ statment of the AK?

[eastbay]

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Thanks for clearing this up. I understand the ICM just gives you the equity and calling and folding is then based soley on the hand ranges you put you opponents on.

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And finally, given the specifics of this particular hand, in my opinion, folding would only be a clear play given a pretty strong read on SB as a scared money tightwad.


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Is this meant for the JJ statment of the AK?

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JJ

eastbay

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And finally, given the specifics of this particular hand, in my opinion, folding would only be a clear play given a pretty strong read on SB as a scared money tightwad.

eastbay

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Interesting, because it's a pretty thin call for a lot of ranges for villain. I think this is because of what I noted earlier, Hero's equity goes down 100% when he loses, but only increases by about 50% when he wins, so he needs to win about 2/3 of the time to make this +$EV. AKo is that big a favorite against any two, or even as much as about top 40%, but it's only barely that good against the whole "range of ranges" from 40% to 100%, making calling effectively break-even. Now, perhaps there's value in having the big stack and knowing what to do with it that argues for a call if villain's range is that big, but then there's the problem with the cases where it isn't.

If Villain is pushing top 30% we're down to -.4%, and it gets rapidly worse from there (the average default range is -3.2%). I don't feel like mucking around with an ICM calculator (and I'm hoping SNGPT adds equity changes for all players in a hand at some point), but I'd assume that one of the reasons Hero's equity goes from effectively break-even to massively negative is that calling here is actually transferring equity to the two players not in the hand, whereas folding is largely just giving a little more equity to the big stack.

What's even more interesting about this hand is I don't think there's any way in hell I fold AKo here normally, and given that assumption I really want to know if there's something I'm missing in the SNGPT analysis because this is both a potential leak, and a potential exploit (for those times when I'm the big stack and I've got a thinking player trapped in this situation).

[eastbay]

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And finally, given the specifics of this particular hand, in my opinion, folding would only be a clear play given a pretty strong read on SB as a scared money tightwad.

eastbay

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AKo is that big a favorite against any two

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Let's be clear. We are talking about JJ.

eastbay

Also, FWIW. According to SNGPT if Hero only calls with somewhere between top 12-13%, villain is correct to push with any two, and if villain is pushing any two, hero should only call with somewhere around top 3% (specifically, it recommends 88+, but AKs makes the +.5% cutoff, too if I check it manually, maybe a rounding issue?).

[eastbay]

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I don't feel like mucking around with an ICM calculator (and I'm hoping SNGPT adds equity changes for all players in a hand at some point)

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What do you mean by this?

eastbay

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AKo is that big a favorite against any two

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Let's be clear. We are talking about JJ.

eastbay

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OK. In the hand as originally posted, Hero holds AKo, though. Am I doing anything wrong in using SNGPT to conclude that calling with that is wrong here, or at best very very marginal?

Also, JJ is a fold (less than +.5%) until villain is pushing about 27%+. I'd guess he's pushing at least that if he's open pushing here. The breakeven point for jacks appears to be around any pair, any ace, any big K, FWIW.

[eastbay]

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AKo is that big a favorite against any two

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Let's be clear. We are talking about JJ.

eastbay

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OK. In the hand as originally posted, Hero holds AKo, though. Am I doing anything wrong in using SNGPT to conclude that calling with that is wrong here, or at best very very marginal?

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Looks marginal at best to me by the analysis. This "Can you really fold AK on the bubble" thing seems to come up about once a quarter and generate a lot of controversy.

Whiffing against a mid-pair enough times in this spot is enough to make a believer out of you. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

eastbay

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I don't feel like mucking around with an ICM calculator (and I'm hoping SNGPT adds equity changes for all players in a hand at some point)

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What do you mean by this?



eastbay

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Meaning that plugging these numbers/assumptions into SNGPT we see the changes in equity for Hero based on folding/call-winning/call-losing, but not on the other players, but I could go plug pre-post and post-hand numbers for various outcomes into an ICM calculator to check.

I'm under the impression that there are cases where the equity gains/losses of a hand don't always accrue to the players involved in the hand (correct me if I'm wrong), and this seems like one of those cases. Clearly when Hero call's and loses his 24.8% pre-post equity isn't transferred entirely to villain, whose pre-post equity is 33.9%, so some of it must be going to the other players, right?

Of course, having spent all this time posting in this thread, I probably could have gone and done this by hand now, and I'd already have the answer. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]