TPTK, controlling the pot size question

[dtbog]

One caveat that I always like to remember in "controlling pot size" threads is to watch out for players who are clearly thinking very seriously about the game.

These players will know what you are doing. Not only will they call your flop bets OOP with their iffy draws because they know you might check behind on the turn, but they will pick up on how often and in what situations you make value bets.

Of course, they will also start to piece together when they can blow you off of your hand with a scare card, as your hand range becomes predictable.

This isn't too important at NL $100, but it's something that you should keep in the back of your mind.

[passion]

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there's no piece of advice regularly given out by inexperienced SSNL players on this board that annoys me more than "push and hope".

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i'm revising my answer [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i didn't read carefully enough and missed the diamond draw. i had read it as diamonds showing up with the turn 9...don't ask me how because on rereading, it's pretty clear.

i need to think about this some more. my intuition tells me that check here is better because the pot is already big and any bet i make ought to be a push. i don't want to leave myself $30 on a diamond river with a $120 pot. i don't like backing TPTK with my stack without a good read.

if he's on a draw, he has probably ~20% equity. if not he probably either has 4% or 96%, which we'll estimate as 0 and 100. his total equity has to be less than 33% to make betting correct because 2:1 is the worst odds we can lay him.

Eq = %drawing*.2 + %made hand winning

How often is he drawing? How often is he beating us? These are read dependant, but if we say 50 and 25 then his equity is about 35%.

I think it's close either way and in the end probably doesn't matter. Checking is probably lower variance because you can value bet if the river blanks and fold if it doesn't.

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I'm taking this as an apology [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Passion

[amoeba]

I think if it was headsup to the flop, checking the turn has merits as the likely hood of him being on a diamond draw is low.

however, since it was 4 to the flop, the diamond draw becomes a much more likely candi

[punter11235]

You played it perfectly to the river when you probably missed some value. I would bet much more on the river because after your turn check Vilain will often think that you are bluffing here.

Best wishes

[punter11235]

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would KQ call a turn push?

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Probably not but KQ will almost always call river push after turn check.

[punter11235]

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alternatively you could try something like raise to $12 on the flop (you are still charging him incorrect odds for the draw as its $9 to call in to a $35 pot for a 1 card flush).


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These are correct odds to draw in no-limit holdem because there is some bluffing equity if one of the str8 cards hit on the turn even more so if Villain has J10 these odds are more than correct and you are losing tons of money here.
But charging Villain for incorrect odds is not the most important thing in this hand. The most important thing here is to charge KQ (or even QJ for some crazy Villains) for maximum and raising flop/checking turn/betting river is perfect play for the purpose.

Best wishes

[derick]

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alternatively you could try something like raise to $12 on the flop (you are still charging him incorrect odds for the draw as its $9 to call in to a $35 pot for a 1 card flush).


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These are correct odds to draw in no-limit holdem because there is some bluffing equity if one of the str8 cards hit on the turn even more so if Villain has J10 these odds are more than correct and you are losing tons of money here.
But charging Villain for incorrect odds is not the most important thing in this hand. The most important thing here is to charge KQ (or even QJ for some crazy Villains) for maximum and raising flop/checking turn/betting river is perfect play for the purpose.

Best wishes

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Sorry for being totally dense but why is ,"... raising flop/checking turn/betting river ..." better than raising flop/betting turn ...

Why is charging the villan the maximum for KQ so important that you can give up charging a possible flush for a free card on the turn?

[amoeba]

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alternatively you could try something like raise to $12 on the flop (you are still charging him incorrect odds for the draw as its $9 to call in to a $35 pot for a 1 card flush).


[/ QUOTE ]

These are correct odds to draw in no-limit holdem because there is some bluffing equity if one of the str8 cards hit on the turn even more so if Villain has J10 these odds are more than correct and you are losing tons of money here.
But charging Villain for incorrect odds is not the most important thing in this hand. The most important thing here is to charge KQ (or even QJ for some crazy Villains) for maximum and raising flop/checking turn/betting river is perfect play for the purpose.

Best wishes

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again, I usually don't care about charging draws as I feel this forum typically overcounts the number of times that villain has a draw here but villain's play here really looks more like a draw than KQ.

Despite being one of the biggest advocates of turn checks on this forum, I hate checking this turn especially given that villain is passive enough to not block/bluff river.