Ever fold KK preflop?

[Eeegah]

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Well, other than playing KTo late (plugged up that hole).

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Whoa, what's wrong with playing KTo late? Gimme the CO or Button and I'm playing any two ten or higher if it's not raised up front.

[Agthorr]

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If I know that the mean is 63% win rate for KK, and I'm currently at 28%, then eventually, I'm gonna go on a streak (all things being equal) where my KK will *not* get busted (just like I expect a "streak" where my QQ/AQ loose alot since they're running "hot" for me now). That *will* happen, it has to in order for win rates to reach the mean/expectation. Would it be wrong to alter your play based on that knowledge?

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It would be wrong, yes, because the events are not correlated. Sometimes there are "streaks", but the streaks are not because you are going through a period where you are more likely to lose. The streak is just a label we apply after the fact to a set of events where you happened to have lost more often.

Unless you are folding KK preflop or at other inappropriate times, of course. Then you have a downstreak because you are playing badly [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Whoa, what's wrong with playing KTo late? Gimme the CO or Button and I'm playing any two ten or higher if it's not raised up front.

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Even with lots of limpers? Guys that may limp in (incorrectly) with KQ/KJ?

From my database, that's a losing hand for me (-11BB), though again, the sample size is small...

Looking here, http://www.tightpoker.com/poker_hands.html
the EV for KT is only 0.01, so it seems like not playing it would not be an incorrect thing, no?

This actually brings up another interesting question: since the number of hands I've been playing (5k) is too small to get a significant sample size of how I run, how do you determine where your leaks are? I mean, if 5K is too small to say "28% KK win rate over 14 hands (5K dealt hands) is too small to compare", then that would apply to, well, every other hand as well. So how do you plug up a leak *before* you have enough statistcal data to say for sure that it *is* a leak? If you wait until you have enough hands to be statiscally relevant, you could be broke!

[Agthorr]

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So at some point, you could shift your betting to "tails only", and come out ahead.

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No, you will only come out even. If you manage to get heads 16 times in a row, it does not follow that in the next 1000 hands you are more likely to get tails. It just means that over the next 1000 hands, you will get heads around half the time and the 16-in-a-row becomes statistically insignificant noise. In other words, (16+500)/(16+1000) is very close to 50%.

Also, you should understand that while the odds of *never* flipping heads after 14 experiments is very small (around 0.006%), the odds of gettings heads 4 times or less in 14 experiments is pretty good (around 9%), because there are many different ways you could get 4 heads. They could be the first four experiments, the last four, some four in the middle, two at the beginning and two at the end, etc. Lots and lots of combinations.

Specifically, there are 2^14 possible sequences. Of these, (14 choose 4) will have exactly four heads, plus (14 choose 3) with exactly four heads, etc., and:

((14 choose 4) + (14 choose 3) + (14 choose 2) + (14 choose 1) + (14 choose 0)) / 2^14 = 9%

[Greg J]

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I'm a complete newb, which is why I'm posting these <sometimes stupid> questions and exposing myself to the heavy artillery fire of the more experienced, and sometimes merciless, posters [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Yeah we can be a little harsh. Oh well, just keep a good attitude and hang in there.

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I need to quit thinking that way. Question now is, how do you make yourself quit thinking that way? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Experience. Cognitively understanding and coldly and rationally seperating yr emotive response from that you KNOW is correct takes practice. (I have still not mastered it.)

[bozlax]

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And ya know, when I think back on, it still "felt" like the right thing to do. If I had to do it again, I think would force myself to call, but I wouldn't feel "good" about it. You ever make calls like that?

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There's a great post out there from one of the uber-Pooh-Bahs that says (again, paraphrased), "When you get a playable hand, given all the conditions that can affect whether or not a hand is 'playable', you should WANT to play that hand preflop."

KK, under any set of circumstances, is playable preflop. You should never have to force yourself to play this hand, and if you do you have a lot of work left to do.

But, welcome. We're here to help.