50/100 party hand I was sweated on

[bicyclekick]

Yeah i usually fold this hand. It got 8 handed and I felt like playing it. Eh. It's gotta be close. You're EP raises get more respect so a lot of AQ's and stuff are going to hit the muck. At least from the good players.

[rigoletto]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't this hand sort of the textbook reason that people suggest folding this hand in early position?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is a perfect raise UTG in a somewhat tight game!

[skp]

But if you were the other guy, wouldn't you value bet any pair on teh river given that BK played his hand like he could have AK or AQ (and also played it like he has no Jack and probably no Ten)?

When this guy bets the river, I wouldn't call thinking he might have AK (b/c I don't think he would bet that hand). Well, he might but I am basically calling because he might have AQ or a pair lower than Tens often enough to make calling worthwhile.

One can't put too much stock in his stats because BK apparently does not have many hands on him. Those stats might be based on 2 or 3 orbits only...who knows...BK didn't specify.

Incidentally, it's funny how poker thinking has evolved. It used to be that a guy giving advice to "checkcall, checkcall, checkfold" would be laughed out of town. Now, we have at least two of the forum's more accomplished players (you and James) giving that advice.

And the advice is correct in many spots (but IMO, not this one).

[fearme]

dont know what those numbers mean, but i say CALLLLLLLLLL
or lead river,

[flawless_victory]

i like your play so far... id fold river.

[adios]

Villan probably spiked a 5 to make a set on the river [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. FWIW I think you should call the pot's laying you enough.

[J_V]

[ QUOTE ]
But if you were the other guy, wouldn't you value bet any pair on teh river given that BK played his hand like he could have AK or AQ (and also played it like he has no Jack and probably no Ten)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your are dead on. Check-folding the river is bad for this reason. It's still probably close. Nonetheless, the point can still be made that as the games get tougher, players need to stop playing cookie cutter poker (i.e. if you call the turn, you HAVE to call the river - pay off one bet on the river mentality). If you don't have the check-call, check-call, check-fold line in your reportoire (with made hands) you are leaving money on the table.

The preflop raise is stupid.

Thank you for correcting me SKP.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
not sure what he's betting here that you beat. but at the same time, if you are calling the turn, i can't see why you'd fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Board: Jd Th 8c 3d
equity (%)
.49 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
.51 { KcTc }

You're receiving 5:1 on the turn, so you have quite a lot of wiggle room re: how often he has to bet AK-AQ to make a call profitable.

On the river, we're not winning 1/8 times given the action. Bet-folding is a possibile option, but I'm not sure it's better than check-folding.

It's okay to fold on the river sometimes when you called on the turn with a made hand.