Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Sports Betting

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-28-2005, 03:45 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default question from a square

hey there... i've been lurking here for a bit, read the FAQ, read some other recommended sites on sports betting, and now its time for me to pop in with a question.

I read nearly all the posts here on a daily basis and i've been making a few plays here and there, mostly College Basketball and NFL.

I tend to play the pointspreads, as I dont really have a good way of evaluating over/unders right now. I also play only on Bodog (poker account)and I get the feeling that it's a laughworthy site as far as betting goes. But for right now, as I'm playing sparingly and still learning the ropes, it works.

I really like the the Pitt/SC and I dont think Pitt will be able to hang in that environment ... the line on BoDog is -3 though, and I know how important each point really is, especially in college basketball.

Does the SC -3 make this a no-play? It's obviously horrendous compared to -1.5, but I _do_ like this game and believe SC will put Pitt down.. I am looking for some "expert" input here on the value of this play, after the line has moved 1.5 points. I still bet 20 on it (about what I tend to play) and I guess we'll see.

Any thoughts/comments would be appreciated, and I'd also like to thank you guys for contributing to what I consider a great forum.

-d
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-28-2005, 04:09 PM
playersare playersare is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 708
Default Re: question from a square

without handicapping the game, it's still clear that everyone and their mother has money on SC. Bodog is still listing them at -2.5 which is pretty much where everyone has it.

I don't think the people who bet so far necessarily have a read on the matchup - it's just that around 11:30am EST, pinnacle burst out the gate with +1.5 +114 to +118 and all the arbs and scalpers jumped in and cleaned all the softer books out, so they had no choice but to move the number in order to stop the frenzy.

this kind of market activity generally dictates that SC is the "right" side. a sharp book like pinnacle baits you with 'free money' on Pittsburgh (the side they want you to LOSE to them) at the expense of all the other books who will have no idea what hit them, and will be forced to pay off all the winners if pinnacle's move is correct (which is usually the case in the long run).

betting SC at -1.5 was probably +EV. betting them at -2.5 is probably breakeven at worst. these sort of random inter-conference games are rarely close IMO. SC is a proven winner at home in the early season, and Pitt has some much tougher opponents coming up so they will not necessarily deplete their energy before flying back to play Wisconsin on NYE.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-28-2005, 07:58 PM
MyTurn2Raise MyTurn2Raise is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: b/n Chicago,Champaign,St. Louis
Posts: 320
Default Re: question from a square

I cannot help but emphasize opening multiple accounts at different trustworthy sites. Line-shopping and gambooling bonuses are huge. I get lazy with small bets, but big bets require the best line possible. Think of it as playing a site with 1/2 rake or something.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-28-2005, 11:18 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: question from a square

well - pittsburgh decided to show up ... figures, eh? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
playersare - Thanks for the explanation of what pinnacle was doing there - i expected that the books were competing in that fashion ... it's sort of cool, actionally (donk) .. regardless, they got my unit there.

I did take Georgia -2 and Creighton +2 tonight, and should get paid on those..
___________________________-

myturntoraise:
i figure that is definitely true - good poker analogy. it's something I'll get to in the future, hopefully sooner rather than later. the omaha hi tables on bodog are pure gold, by the way [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Anyways, I made about six or seven plays today, and I've started a file for record keeping and analysis after the college basketball season ends. Does anyone know of any free software that will do this sort of thing for me? I imagine there must be something out there..

Thanks again for the help, it's appreciated.

-d
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:08 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.