Value betting 101

[baronzeus]

Pacific poker 6 handed 15/30 (taking a stupid shot, don't make fun)

I'm on the BB with KK w/ K spades

folded to button who limps, SB completes, I raise, both call

Flop comes: A98 2 spades

check, I bet, both call

Turn comes: 9 no spade

check, I bet, both call

River comes: 9 no spade

check, I????


Rate the value in this bet. The button is pretty aggressive (raised me on a 992 board with J4o) but no read on SB who sat down 2 hands ago

[JrJordan]

I think its a fine value bet. Button will open raise preflop with an A, so he doesn't have it. SB has shown known intention of having an A either and you can't really give credit for a 9 anywhere. Seems like a reasonable value bet. I'd call a raise from the button, but if button calls and SB c/r's then I might be inclined to fold for one more.

[MrTeddyKGB]

check to induce a bluff from a missed flush/pair draw. He may have a weak ace a lot of guys who try wild bluffs slow down with marginal hands they can call with. From your read I don't think I would want to fold to a river raise. I think it is a check.

[baronzeus]

Things that call me down here are probably pocket pairs and perhaps an 8. K high on rare occasions. I think this is really close. I'd like some more advice before I tell you what I did and the results.

[Digs]

I bet~

Check/call has it's merits and sometimes I'll do that, but default is bet for me

[wackjob]

Bet it.

[SGS]

You will get called by an 8 or even sometimes a random pocket pair. I think you can bet this.

SGS

[OrianasDaad]

Checking seems like the better play. There just aren't too many likely hands out that could call you, and you can't bet for value if you don't expect to be called.

Given your read on the button, you can almost rule out an ace or a pocket pair. These hands are good stealing hands, and you mentioned that he's aggressive.

The pot has 7.5BB in it, and assuming you call a bluff from the button (you can't check-raise for value here, since button won't call a bad hand and will 3-bet when you are beat) you need him to bluff more than 11.8% of the time.

This isn't too much to ask from an aggro opponent on the river. I think he'll fold far more often than will bluff so, there's not much value in betting.

If the small blind calls the button bluff, then you might be behind, but probably not. There's only four cards left in the deck that beat your hand, and the odds that they are in someone's hand are less than what you are getting from the pot. Bayes' theorum, I believe. I still feel that check-raising here isn't for value.

There's one situation that complicates matters. The small blind might check-raise knowing that you are capable of folding the best hand and the button is on a likely bluff. I honestly don't know what to do there, but I don't see it happening very often.

[baronzeus]

Any other thoughts?

I decided to bet after some thought, Button called, SB folded, and Button mucked.

[SippinSoma]

There are more hands that will bet when checked to, than hands you're favored against if your bet is called.

Check and call.