overpair flop decision vs TAG

einbert · #1 06-29-2005, 10:23 AM

My opponent in this hand had stats of 16.6/3.9/2.3 with a WTSD of 23 over 259 hands.

I felt I had to raise this flop to avoid letting draws see a another card cheaply, but I was totally puzzled as to what he held when he pushed on me. Will an aggressive player really play a set this fast? Would he really three-bet the flop with a lower overpair than mine (this seemed very unlikely to me)? 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] seem possible, but since I am a slight dog to these and a tremendous dog to a set it didn't seem like I have enough equity on average to make this call.

Help with regards to figuring out this guy's hand range would be most appreciated. Also what is my plan if he just calls my flop raise and checks to me on the turn? The board just seemed too draw heavy to give a free card, and the pot was going to be already quite large at that point.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

Hero ($204.4)
Button ($243.42)
SB ($197.7)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
5 folds, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, Button calls $8, SB (poster) calls $7, 1 fold.

Flop: ($26) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $6, Hero raises to $40, Button folds, SB is all-in $140 more,

swolfe · #2 06-29-2005, 10:35 AM

he has a set, no question. his stats are too tight to be playing even an OESFD that aggressively.

PinkSteel · #3 06-29-2005, 10:37 AM

I play it like you did and fold it for the reasons you stated. If he flat calls your raise I check behind on the turn for pot control.

einbert · #4 06-29-2005, 10:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
he has a set, no question. his stats are too tight to be playing even an OESFD that aggressively.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting. This implies that this kind of player would expect a call from AA-QQ/A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] fairly frequently at this level?

swolfe · #5 06-29-2005, 10:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is interesting. This implies that this kind of player would expect a call from AA-QQ/A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] fairly frequently at this level?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

Ghazban · #6 06-29-2005, 10:49 AM

I don't agree that he definitely has a set based on those numbers but I still think you have to fold. A set is his most likley holding but something like AhKh is a very real possibility, too (the OESFD is less likely than the overs+flush draw). In any case, the question is if you're flipping coins (with AhKh or an OESFD) or way behind to a set. While you'd have odds to call if he showed you the big draw, you don't have anywhere near odds against his total range (1 way to have AhKh, 6 ways to have one of the three sets on board).