Rick Nebiolo asked me to post this e-mail

[Gabe]

In reply to:

>I'm aware one shouldn't solicit opinions but this poker problem really has
>peaked my curiosity regarding your input.

>I just put up the following post (which concentrates on the flop decision) a
>few minutes ago. Here is the link:
> http://tinyurl.com/3zuvq

>Any feedback would be appreciated, but if you are busy that wouldn't be hard
>to understand [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

>Regards,

>Rick


Hi Rick,

At the table my first though would be as follows:

If I always win with two pair or better then,

The 3's. (I’d assume I’d win 3 more BB.)

3 x 17 = 51

B/D flush. (I’d pick it up 10 times and win 20%. I’d raise as mike did,
when I pick it up, so I win 11sb + 3bb when I make it and lose 1sb
and 2bb when I don’t.)

2 x 17 = 34

8 x 5 = -40

B/D O/E straight (I’d pick up a non-heart 4 three times. I’d raise, as he
did with the flush draw. Again, 11sb + 3bb when I make it. 1sb + 2bb when
I don’t. I’d make it 17% of the times I pick it up, so about .5 times
I’d win and 2.5 times I’d lose.)

.5 x 17 = 8.5

2.5 x 5 = -12.5

B/D G/S straight. (3 non-heart deuces and 3 non-heart 7's. Again I’d raise
when I pick it up. I’d make it 9% of the time, so it's about .5 times I’d
win and 5.5 times I’d lose.)

.5 x 17 = 8.5

5.5 x 5 = -27.5

Trips. (I’d figure I’d win 2 bb more with them.)

2 x 15 = 30

No improvement. (Lets say my hand is good and holds up 4% of the time. I
win 2 more bb when I win and loses an average of 1.5 bb more when I lose because I’d make a good lay-down sometimes.)

1 x 11 = 22

22 x -2 = -44

So, my initial overly optimistic view would be, over 47 times I’d win 154sb's and lose
124sb's for a .6sb EV.

I would then quickly look at it more pessimistically.

The 3's. (Everything the same as before but I lose 4bb's 17% of the time
with my 2-pair.)

2.5 x 17 = 42.5

.5 x -9 = -4.5

B/D flush. (Everything same as before but 10% of the time I lose 5bb when
my flush loses.)

1.8 x 17 = 30.6

.2 x -11 = -2.2

8 x -5 = -40

B/D O/E straight. (Everything same as before but I lose 10% of the time
with my straight.)

.45 x 17 = 7.65

.05 x -11 = -5.5

2.5 x 5 = -12.5

B/D G/S straight. (10% of the time I lose with my straight.)

.45 x 17 = 7.65

.05 x -11 = -5.5

5.5 x 5 = -27.5

Trips. (Now this is pessimistically fudged, because the times someone else
has a T there is only one way to get in trouble. Let's say trips loses 20%
of the time and loses say an average of 3.5 more BB when it does.)

1.6 x 17 = 27.2

.4 x -8 = -3.2

No improvement. (I think 4% was pessimistic enough.)

1 x 11 = 22
22 x -1 = -44

So even for the more pessimistic view, its win 137.6sb and lose 144.9sb over 47
times or only a -.16sb EV.

I would of course realize that, I didn’t count the times I picked up a draw and won with two pair on the river, or the times I got to see the river cheap and won with two pair. I also did not adequately account for the times I’d be able to get multiple bets from more than one opponent, because of my position relative to the bettor. Also, a scare card will often come, no one bets and I’d lose less, the times I’d lose.

I would consider the possibility that the player behind me might raise, and realize that he would not raise often. Because of his position to the bettor he would only raise for a free card or because he has a very good hand. A raise from him may actually not be too bad, because I may need a free card or his action my help me decide what to do later in the hand.

So, off the top of my head, I’d say you’re wrong, and folding is a mistake.

You were also wrong about the pastrami at the Hustler. It is much too dry, but I don’t have time to get into that right now.

Gabe

[James282]

Great analysis Gabe.
-James

[JimmyV]

"Lets say my hand is good and holds up 4% of the time."

This is WAY too pessimistic, especially since the purely speculative flop calls are likely to become turn folds, whether the bet at that point comes from SB or from Hero.

Any real thoughts on opponents' holdings, Gabe? What hands are you in trouble against besides SB's?

Feeling strongly about this,

JimmyV

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
You were also wrong about the pastrami at the Hustler. It is much too dry, but I don’t have time to get into that right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm so tired and worn down looking over these threads (after a long workday) I'd much rather get into discussing where to get the best pastrami [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

~ Rick

[mike l.]

"where to get the best pastramui"

you tell me. this is going to sound silly but i like this pizza they make out the cpk in vegas that is a reuben w/ pastrami thousand island swiss (i think?) and sauerkraut (sp?). im a big sauerkraut fan thanks to pinks. anyway you have to order extra for the pizza. but darn it's way better than it sounds.

and i like phillipes but that's not pastrami that's lamb and swiss french dip with that great horseradish laced mustard that's pretty seering for something they leave out on a table for kids to get into. i slather about a ton of that stuff on and just cry and then go watch the clippers get killed and then go win about a trillion dollars at commerce. and then back over to pinks. now that's a late autumn sunday fit for a king. you in rick? gabe? jim, andy, the gang?
mike

[Gabe]

I'm in.

The place you'd probably like is Johnnie's Pastrami on Sepulveda in Culver City. It's an old school California coffee shop joint not a Deli.

[astroglide]

if you visit nyc i believe the 5th street deli is supposed to be the world's best pastrami

[Josh W]

Never in my life have I ever read RGP.

This thread has insured that I will be able to honestly make that statement again in a year.

Josh

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
you tell me. this is going to sound silly but i like this pizza they make out the cpk in vegas that is a reuben w/ pastrami thousand island swiss (i think?) and sauerkraut (sp?). im a big sauerkraut fan thanks to pinks. anyway you have to order extra for the pizza. but darn it's way better than it sounds.

[/ QUOTE ]

i like the crazy pizzas and pastrami/rueben sounds great. i try to eat healthy but after ten pm it's got to be greasy-good-delicious which is why my current diet strategy is to have no food (except the canned just in case of an earthquake or nuke attack) in the house (easy for me because i live sort of alone and get to sign for food at work). but when i go out i like to indulge, and the greasier, tastier, goofier the better. i also like the "late night food joint atmosphere", which was why i was weirded out that night we tried to go to pink's and everybody looked at me as if i would object to standing in such a fascinating line (plus i'd want to see how the line compares to haven's brothers diner in providence, rhode island}, still my favorite late night ambiance.

[ QUOTE ]
and i like phillipes but that's not pastrami that's lamb and swiss french dip with that great horseradish laced mustard that's pretty seering for something they leave out on a table for kids to get into. i slather about a ton of that stuff on and just cry and then go watch the clippers get killed and then go win about a trillion dollars at commerce. and then back over to pinks. now that's a late autumn sunday fit for a king. you in rick? gabe? jim, andy, the gang?

[/ QUOTE ]

sunday is great for me. i still like the pool hall idea at hollywood park after we crush the games. first we need to stop by pink's (hope they don't close by nine pm like the pink's at the bike) then go upstairs later and shoot some sh_t and pool. since i owe gabe and andy ten bucks each for the analysis (which is probably flawed but you guys (at least for now) have worn me out). i'll pay for the time (yeah, pool still charges time!, great for the action).

Anyway, right now any discussion of greasy food sounds just fine.

~ Rick

PS After a hard day went to barn's and noble and picked up the cigar aficionado ($5 bucks!) with greg raymer on the cover. i'll file a report after i get a chance to read it. also got the fourth installment of the patrick o'brien (master and commander) novels. am really looking forward to that. lastly got a starbucks, which is why i'm wired i can type this when a normal person would be watching jon stewart or even leno.




.


mike

[/ QUOTE ]

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Never in my life have I ever read RGP.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you have the right newsreader (forte agent is my choice) and good posters on your watch list RGP can be fun and it is very easy to skim.

[ QUOTE ]
This thread has insured that I will be able to honestly make that statement again in a year.

[/ QUOTE ]

why? because it is so good and meaningful or is it because reading it has worn you down so much that you will no longer engage in any further poker related activity?

~ rick